The Perils of Extreme Federalism
Then-gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin at a campaign stop in Virginia Beach in February 2021. Photo courtesy of the Youngkin campaign.
In late 2023, citizens across dozens of states headed to the polls with one purpose: selecting the next leaders of their respective communities. Whether voters were electing their next governor in Kentucky or state legislators in Virginia, these elections held enormous significance for local policy and governance issues. However, despite these stakes, the elections received minimal media coverage across the board, causing turnout to drop from already abysmal levels in 2019.
Such a result hardly deviates from long-standing trends. Unlike presidential or Congressional elections, local races (which often occur in off-years) have repeatedly drawn diminished public attention. In response, many citizens have increasingly voiced their concern over how odd-year election schedules cause a lack of voter engagement. After all, if city officials constitute the most localized form of government, why are they elected separately from more high-profile federal officials?
In recent years, numerous justifications have been provided to defend this tradition. Most notably, some have depicted off-year elections as a manifestation of federalism, allowing voters to focus on national and local issues in different years. Even if this argument is to be taken at face value, appallingly low turnout figures and voter apathy have begun to challenge the conventional notion that local elections must be segregated from their federal counterparts. On top of diminishing civic participation, off-year elections contribute to lower minority voter turnout, underscoring the problematic nature of such elections. Therefore, to increase overall civic participation and minority representation, off-year elections should be consolidated with their even-year counterparts.
The Curious Origins of Off-Year Elections
Before delving into the contemporary context, it’s important to consider the historical context behind odd-year elections. While congressional and presidential elections have been fixed on Election Day for decades now, this was not always the case. Prior to 1872, states held elections for the Senate and House of Representatives whenever they so desired. Although this was later standardized to save costs and time, a few jurisdictions opted to ignore this idea at the statewide level. There were three reasons for this resistance: white supremacy, scheduling mistakes, and political expediency.
First, some of the most outspoken critics of uniform elections in even years originated in the South. In particular, states like Mississippi and Kentucky were vocally opposed to standardized elections because they feared it would result in more federal scrutiny. At a time when southern constitutions were being rewritten to maintain white supremacy and implement a one-party system of dominance, these racist political aims were better supported by electing local officials independently from federal ones.
On the other hand, separate jurisdictions like Virginia chose to elect statewide officials in odd-numbered years after a scheduling mixup. Since then, the system has continued to run in the same fashion to insulate public opinion from federal issues. For the most part, this split has drawn minimal criticism from members of the public and incumbent legislators, who would be in charge of changing the election timing.
Arguably the most sensible explanation for these elections, however, can be found in the case study of New Jersey. After President Franklin Roosevelt’s blowout victory in the 1944 presidential contest, Republicans in the state legislature became increasingly wary of being elected on the same ballot as such a popular Democratic figure. They hastily changed the constitution to insulate themselves from stiff political competition, banking on the fact that their independence would be more pronounced in a standalone election rather than at the bottom of a presidential ballot. With such little attention being paid to their individual records and positions, many officials have correctly deduced that odd-year elections provide a means of reducing potential voter scrutiny. This reasoning helps explain why many incumbents in today’s political climate desperately seek to avoid standardizing elections.
The Nationalization of Local Politics
A common attack against moving local elections to even years is the idea that federal issues and partisanship will overtake local concerns. There is some merit to this argument; after all, some states allow voters to select candidates for all offices of the same party with the tick of a box. However, to properly assess this claim, it’s important to consider the extent to which local races have become overwhelmingly partisan instead of issue-focused. According to recent results from across the country, local elections have become increasingly fixated on national political topics, causing races to become highly partisan. For instance, despite being a reliably conservative state at the federal level, Kentucky continued to elect Democratic majorities to its state House of Representatives for decades until 2016, after which the local and state-level seats became increasingly Republican. The reverse has been observed with states like Virginia, where Republican officials at the local level have lost their majorities as the state has shifted into the Democratic column.
The Collapse of Voter Engagement
By nearly any measure, general voter turnout experiences a precipitous decline in odd years as compared to even years. In last year’s city council elections across New York state, a meager 21 percent of registered voters cast their ballots. In contrast, nearly twice as many New Yorkers participated in the previous year’s midterms. Given how midterm elections are usually noted for their low engagement rates, off-year elections appear to accentuate this voter dropoff, seeing turnout plummet. As such, one can easily conclude that odd-year elections are correlated with fewer individuals participating in the democratic process.
To put into perspective just how much the odd-year nature of New York’s elections hampered its turnout, one can compare it to other locations. Los Angeles, which elects officials in even-numbered years, saw a turnout of nearly 40% in its city council election in 2020. This percentage is nearly double the turnout rate in New York’s 2023 elections, suggesting that merely changing the timing of elections could significantly boost voter engagement. If the goal of a democracy is to include as many voices as possible, cities would do well to choose a scheduling system that is the most capable of turning out voters.
The Decline in Minority Political Participation
While turnout generally drops across the board in odd-numbered years, one portion of the electorate takes a particularly large hit: minorities. In cities as diverse as New York City, participation from diverse communities is crucial in shaping the direction of public policy. However, according to the latest figures, white voters were disproportionately more likely to vote in off years, dramatically limiting the influence of minority voters. These findings come in contrast to the composition of the presidential electorate during even years, in which minorities constituted record shares of the electorate. One can thus infer that if New York City Council elections were moved to even-numbered years, minorities would form a larger proportion of the electorate, ensuring that their interests were sufficiently represented.
This trend isn’t just limited to New York City, however. In states like Mississippi, which is home to the largest proportion of African Americans in the country, Black voter turnout saw a dramatic decline in 2023. This has been a pattern throughout Mississippi history, partially explaining why no African American officials have been elected statewide since Reconstruction in the 19th century. This suggests that the mere placement of elections in odd years induces diminished minority voter participation, consequently depriving these communities of sufficient representation. As such, simply moving these elections to even years appears to be a simple solution to remedying some racial imbalances in political representation.
Fundamentally, federalism is an important aspect of the American political system. At its core, this system enables voters to tailor their political preferences to closer, local issues and more distant, federal concerns. However, despite this fact, odd-year elections were almost never intended to promote this practice, despite contemporary claims to the contrary. In fact, when considering the impacts on voter turnout and minority engagement, it becomes even more difficult to defend this idea. If American politicians truly believe in the democratic process, they should move all elections to even-numbered years in order to boost civic participation.
Yusuf Arifin (CC ’27) is a staff writer at CPR studying political science. Originally from Portland, his main interests include American elections and civil rights.