Rivers of Rivalry: The Crisis of Water Scarcity in the Middle East
Hadithah Dam in Iraq. Picture by Shay Haas.
In the Middle East, a region synonymous with oil, water is emerging as a resource of equal, if not greater, strategic importance. Once described as the “Fertile Crescent,” the region now grapples with severe water scarcity, an issue likely to worsen in the coming years.
Over 200 river basins, covering more than half of the Earth’s land area, are shared by multiple countries, necessitating regular engagement and cooperation. The Middle East is a stark illustration of this global challenge, as most countries’ water supplies rely on rivers and underground reservoirs shared with at least one neighboring country. Out of the twenty-two Arab states, fifteen share surface water basins, and all states except Comoros share at least one aquifer. Collaboration challenges are heightened by a significant power imbalance, often termed “hydro-hegemony.” States with greater control over water resources, especially those in upstream positions, hold a strategic advantage, a dynamic that breeds cross-border tensions.
Formerly the cradle of civilization, the “Fertile Crescent” now faces an unprecedented water crisis. In recent decades, the Middle East has emerged as the world’s most water-stressed region, with an estimated 83% of the population experiencing extremely high water stress. This situation will only worsen. By 2025, projections suggest that 1.8 billion people will live in areas of absolute water scarcity, characterized by inadequate water supply to sustain human life and the natural ecosystem. Many of these areas are concentrated in the Middle East.
Climate change exacerbates this scenario. Reports using the Heat Wave Magnitude Index suggest that summer heat extremes will intensify in the Middle East. Within the century, unprecedented heatwaves of 132°F (55.6°C) and above are projected to occur for weeks at a time in countries like Iraq, Somalia, and Syria. Increasing temperatures, high evaporation rates, and low rainfall—coupled with consistent population growth—increase water scarcity. As water scarcity intensifies across the Middle East, the weaponization of this vital resource becomes increasingly devastating, serving both as strategic leverage and an effective tactic to decimate the strength of adversaries.
Historically, water has rarely been a cause for war. Its status as a renewable resource has often made it a vehicle for collaboration between riparian countries, with thousands of water treaties signed throughout history. In fact, the last full-scale war fought exclusively over water is thought to have occurred 4,500 years ago in Mesopotamia between two city-states: Lagash and Umma.
There is a moral imperative for collaboration. Biblical narratives, such as the agreement between Abraham and the Philistines over the right to a well, describe peaceful solutions to disputes over water rights. In the Quran, sharing water is an act of charity, one of the key pillars of Islam.
However, in the contemporary landscape, as warned by UN Secretary-General António Guterres, water scarcity, fueled by climate change, is increasingly linked to conflict. The strategic significance of water control is evident in the Middle East, where water-sharing treaties are fracturing. Water scarcity drives competition for limited resources, meaning water plays an increasingly relevant role in conflict. While water scarcity is a threat multiplier, it is equally an effective weapon of war, with limited resources heightening its destructive impact.
Non-state actors have proved particularly adept at weaponizing water. In Iraq and Syria, control over water became a key component of ISIS’ strategy for territorial expansion, contaminating, restricting, and releasing it as a means of destruction. Marcus D. King, author of Weaponizing Water: Water Stress and Islamic Extremist Violence in Africa and the Middle East, observed that in 2016, at the height of its power, ISIS strategically prioritized control of territory along the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, allowing for control over water infrastructure, especially dams.
Control over dams allowed ISIS to simultaneously weaponize the restriction of water and the capacity for flooding. Seizure of dams became a tool for deterrence and threat construction, used to prevent uprisings in captured and enemy territories. However, ISIS did not hesitate to harness the destructive power of dams. Control over Iraq’s Fallujah Dam, for example, allowed ISIS to flood 200 square kilometers of territory, preventing the advancement of the Iraqi military. While flooding proved a strategic weapon for ISIS, its devastation was indiscriminate, costing 60,000 civilians their livelihoods.
State actors are equally responsible for weaponizing water. In Yemen, Houthi and Saudi-led Coalition forces have targeted access to water as a part of their conflict strategy. Since 2015, Houthis have destroyed desalination plants, dams, reservoirs, and freshwater pipes, severely limiting civilian access to potable water in an already water-stressed environment. Both the Houthi and Coalition forces have also reportedly blocked deliveries of water to civilians under the guise of weakening the enemy. Within this conflict, controlling the provision of water has become a point of leverage in negotiations, a strategic tool obtained at the cost of civilian lives.
Recently, the issue of water as a “weapon of war” has been discussed in reference to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. On November 17, 2023, Pedro Arrojo-Agudo, the UN Special Rapporteur on the human rights to safe drinking water and sanitation, called upon Israel to allow fuel and clean water into Gaza. This appeal came in response to Israel’s blockade, which included the restriction of fuel supplies and the shutting off of pipelines that provided fresh water to Gaza. This decision forced the closing of desalination plants and sewage pumps, which left sufficient drinking water to sustain just 5% of Gaza’s population. Israel’s weaponization of water has precedent: during military operations “Cast Lead” in 2008 and “Protective Edge” in 2014, the destruction of wastewater treatment plants caused widespread contamination.
Due to the indiscriminate nature of flooding, contamination, and the restriction of water, its use as a weapon of war has catalyzed humanitarian crises, constituting a crime against humanity. Globally, the lack of access to clean drinking water and poor sanitation are the leading causes of mortality. Both the contamination and restriction of water exacerbate existing scarcity, leading to the proliferation of waterborne diseases, food shortages, and displacement of populations. Equally, flooding destroys homes and crops, causing food shortages, displacement, and environmental degradation.
In the context of increasing water scarcity, the humanitarian impacts of water’s weaponization will only grow in severity. Addressing the weaponization of water, however, requires a multifaceted approach. It calls for international legal frameworks explicitly protecting water resources during conflicts and condemning water’s use as a weapon of war. This approach has been explored to an extent, as the International Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques (ENMOD) prohibits “interference with the hydrological balance.” However, the difficulty of enforcing international law limits its efficacy. As such, international diplomatic efforts and conflict resolution mechanisms must also center access to water as essential to regional peace and security. Finally, as negotiations and international frameworks often fail to influence non-state actors—adaptation is key. Across the Middle East, investment in desalination technologies, sustainable irrigation, and updated freshwater pipes would allow for more efficient use of water resources, reducing the extent of devastation wrought by water’s weaponization.
Earlier this year, the United Nations hosted its first Water Conference since 1977. There, it produced a Water Action Agenda, signifying a commitment by the global community to address the water crisis through a paradigm of collaboration and a variety of country-specific objectives. While such progress is significant, water’s increasing use as a weapon of war necessitates specific discussions of scarcity within the context of conflict. As the climate crisis deepens, the need for cooperative water management and the protection of water in times of conflict becomes not just desirable, but essential for the future peace and prosperity of the region.
Hattie Bilson (GS ’25) is a staff writer at the Columbia Political Review. She is a junior studying political science and Middle Eastern and European Languages and Cultures as part of the Dual BA between Columbia and Trinity College Dublin.