Why Is Everyone Talking About Wheat?

Image of a wheat field. Photo by Krishak Jaget.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had devastating consequences on Ukrainian lives and land. Countless innocent lives have been lost to senseless brutality and violence, and the ramifications of the conflict will undoubtedly ripple throughout Ukraine and the international community for years to come. These ramifications are already beginning to be felt in the global wheat market. Making up a combined 20-30% of global wheat exports, the Baltic Sea Region—of which Ukraine and Russia are key players—is known as the “breadbasket” of the world. The invasion’s impact on Ukrainian and Russian exports and individual farmers in Ukraine has left countries dependent on wheat exports, particularly those in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), facing potential famine and political instability. Considering this crisis and its potential consequences in MENA, there is a need for individual nations in the MENA region to reimagine food production with local sovereignty and women agricultural laborers as a focal point.

While Ukraine and Russia have exponentially increased their contributions to wheat exports over the last two decades, wealthier nations such as the United States have stockpiles of wheat more than sufficient to outlast disruptions in supply. Similarly, farmers worldwide began planting extra wheat back in November in anticipation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Wheat is a durable crop, and one with geographically numerous exporting regions. Agricultural yields have always been subject to factors outside of governmental control, but nations can mitigate the unpredictability of crop yields with efforts like crop forecasting, which estimates yields before actual harvest. With global harvests for the year already exceeding predictions, wealthy nations had very little to fear in regard to their food supply. Yet, instead of approaching the decrease in supply with an eye on vulnerable nations, many wealthy nations reacted impulsively and began to import extra wheat. This importation was not only unnecessary due to their established food security, but put increased strain on the supply MENA countries are dependent on.

The main fallouts from disruptions in the Baltic wheat supply are borne by devastated farms in Ukraine and the nations that receive the majority of their wheat imports from the Black Sea region. While most regions grow their own wheat or have access to the exports of nations that adapted to the conflict and upped production, such as India or China, MENA countries rely predominantly on Russia and Ukraine for exports. A quarter of Northern African countries receive a majority of their wheat supply from foreign nations. Furthermore, many MENA countries have little infrastructure for domestic food production that would help compensate for the loss in imported grain. 

Known as the “fertile crescent,” the grains that would evolve into modern wheat were first cultivated on land in the Near East and North Africa. Through a long history of colonization and regional loss of sovereignty over land, food, and resources, once bountiful MENA countries have become increasingly dependent on foreign trade for food. From 2000 to 2011, MENA wheat imports increased by 18%, and by 2011, the Russian Federation was the top exporter of wheat to Egypt, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen. Of these countries, Lebanon imports 52% of its wheat from Russia, Egypt has seen a 342% increase in Russian exports over the last decade, and a third of Yemen’s wheat comes from the Black Sea region. A 2014 brief from Duke Law School stated that MENA is acutely affected by geographic and price shifts in the Baltic Sea region. As the wheat supply fluctuates with the conflict, the stability of the Middle East and North Africa will shift alongside it. 

Pandemic-related shipping disruptions and the current trend of prioritizing foreign goods over local crops could lead to many countries seeing a spike in bread prices: an increase that could ignite already volatile nations. This danger was confirmed in 2011 when soaring wheat prices were contributed to the circumstances around the Arab Spring uprisings and the significant political upheaval that followed. Currently, Egypt’s grain supplies are only slotted to last through 2022, Lebanon is only able to hold a month’s worth of grain supply after the destruction of silos in Beirut, and millions in Yemen already facing famine rely on bread for the majority of their caloric intake. Increased costs and loss of imports could lead to waves of protest and hunger across the region.

Existing in a state of food insecurity is unsustainable for any region, and Middle Eastern and North African advocates are calling for MENA nations to invest in more resilient local food systems. For decades, the agricultural sector in North Africa has been marginalized in favor of global trade and manufacturing, leaving many without the means to produce domestic products. A shift towards food sovereignty and ecological farming is critical. In Jordan, Wheat Blessing, a community-based group, has begun to work towards this goal through cultivating neglected urban land into productive wheat fields. The group encourages food independence, focusing on feeding their communities over meeting global demand. More and more communities in Lebanon are organizing with similar intentions, promoting urban agriculture through community gardens and grassroots food security efforts. As of March 2022, only 30% of arable land in the MENA region is cultivated, leaving land ripe with potential neglected. By encouraging farmers to produce goods benefiting their community and incentivizing local food production, governments would serve the needs of citizens while stabilizing their food supplies.

However, success in the agricultural sector of these nations cannot be achieved without addressing gender disparities. Women provide a majority of the world’s agricultural labor but lack the resources provided to their male counterparts. A report from an FAO Regional Conference on women in the rural sector in the Near East and Northern Africas outlined that women in MENA do not have equitable access to land ownership. This restriction limits women’s capacity to sustain productivity, create a livelihood, and receive loans. Though 39% of economically active women in the region work formally in agriculture, government programs classify them as farm assistants. The demotion of their status reveals the lack of respect women are given as agricultural laborers, many of whom are also the sole caretakers and domestic laborers in their families and lack any formal education. Until these disparities are addressed, women agricultural workers will continue to be sidelined and unable to provide the agricultural productivity necessary for MENA’s continued autonomy and stability.

The crisis in Ukraine is notable first in its tragedy, but the global implications of the conflict further underline important needs regarding hunger and political stability in the MENA region. As wheat becomes an increasingly at-risk resource through conflict and climate change, nations in the Middle East and North Africa must invest in gender-sensitive agriculture with community-based production as a focal point in order to mitigate potential famine and unrest.

Claire Burke is a first-year at Barnard College studying Political Ecology, Human Rights, and Latin American Studies. She would like to blame the fact that she keeps writing about agriculture on her Kansan roots and the endless passages about farming in Anna Karenina.