Rising Gas Prices: A Danger to Democrats in the 2022 Midterms?

Gas station in Manhattan. Photo by Peter Moskowitz. 

The COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on global trade created an inability to meet the soaring demands for consumer products in the U.S. As a result, in January 2022, inflation in the U.S. reached its highest level in 40 years, with prices rising by 7.5% from one year ago. The rise in consumer price index (CPI) was the largest since February 1982.

Since taking office, the Biden administration has had to navigate a difficult disconnect between the macroeconomics of inflation and the way individual Americans have been impacted. Despite the U.S. economy growing at 5.5% last year—the strongest growth rate since 1984—and a record 6.6 million jobs added by employers during Biden’s first year in office, rising prices of consumer products took a significant toll on the President’s approval ratings. Biden’s approval began to decline more rapidly in the second half of 2021, characterized by increasing inflation. At the one-year mark of his presidency, only 37% of Americans approved of how the President is handling the economy.

There are predictions that inflation could cost Democrats control of Congress in the upcoming 2022 midterm elections. It has been a trend in the nation’s political history for the incumbent president’s party to do poorly in midterm elections, and national polls and focus groups find that many Americans are worried about inflation and rising costs. Particularly, the climbing price of gasoline in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been weighing heavily on individuals across the country.

In March 2022, the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline hit $4.173, surpassing the previous high in July 2008 of $4.114.  Since then, the new national record of $4.331 was hit on Thursday, March 10. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration data, in the first two months of 2022, the average price for a gallon of gasoline had risen by about 25%, and significantly increased to about 70% since President Biden took office. While oil prices continue to fluctuate daily, the President acknowledged that his recent decision to block U.S. imports of Russian oil might send prices even higher. 

It may be assumed, then, that these soaring gas prices, alongside nationwide inflation since Biden took office, will hurt Democrats’ political prospects in the upcoming 2022 midterm elections, in which all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives as well as 35 Senate seats are up for grabs. Given a number of factors, the current prediction is that Republicans will take back control of one, if not both houses of Congress. However, history shows us that there is no clear connection between gas prices and election outcomes.

The 2008 gas price shutdown illustrated that gas prices are critical to politicians, and it provides some insight into what might happen in 2022. In the first several months of 2008, gas prices climbed steadily, until, in June, they were 30% higher than January of that same year. Pew Research Center found that 72% of Americans pointed to oil and gas prices when asked to name the economic or financial problem they had been hearing most about in the news at the time.

Each Presidential campaign was pushed to take a position on the issue. While it is commonly thought that economic downturn hurts the incumbent party, Republicans used the gas price issue to benefit them, with their message that America needs more oil receiving 73% support in the polls and causing initially speculative Democrats to cave. However, the gas price issue was overshadowed by other events. The Great Recession resulted in falling demand and rising unemployment, and ultimately gas prices fell to 22% lower than the start of 2008.

With plenty of time for the gas price situation to change before the midterms this year, the present situation mirrors that of 2008, providing some semblance of hope to the Democrats that the climbing gas prices may not hurt them as much in the midterms as might be theorized.

“Perhaps,” Andrew Prokop with Vox suggests, the fact that the incumbent party in 2008 managed to put their opposition on the defensive on the issue “means that it’s not inevitable that [Biden will] be blamed by voters for high gas prices, and that with the proper messaging, he can avert that outcome.” Since survey data and messaging by the President supports that this possibility is becoming a reality, the Democrats might not have such a bleak outlook in the 2022 midterms, at least on account of the prices at the pump.

Former Vice President Mike Pence’s political advocacy group Advancing American Freedom is running ads for close House races which link Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Democratic energy policies to rising gas prices. It is no surprise that Republicans are using the rising gas prices as an attack strategy for the midterms, but that does not mean that these attacks will be effective.

Despite acknowledging that his plan to implement a U.S. ban on all Russian oil, natural gas, and coal imports would impose costs on Americans, Biden framed it as “a step that we’re taking to inflict further pain on Putin.” Biden further preempted Republican attacks by noting that the U.S. pumped more oil in his first year in office than former President Trump’s first year in office. Biden promised to “do everything [he] can to minimize Putin’s price hike” for Americans, and emphasized the prospects of an energy-independent American economy in the future.

A recent Quinnipiac poll found that an overwhelming 71% of Americans say they would support a ban on Russian oil, even if it meant higher gas prices. Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy stated, “Americans are ready to put a chokehold on Russia’s key financial lifeblood, oil, no matter what the consequences are at the pump.”

Biden’s messaging seems to have been successful in averting some consequences the Democratic Party might have inadvertently suffered in the midterms due to the rising gas prices. Americans’ concerns about the foreign conflict seem to have taken precedence over their concerns about personal costs at this time, sending an important message about public opinion. 

Saniya Gaitonde is a first-year student at Barnard College and a Staff Writer with CPR. She is from Long Island and plans to study Political Science. She is passionate about American politics, global issues, and law.