Political and Economic Future in a Limbo: Why International Recognition of Kosovo’s Independence is Necessary
Kosovar people marching on the streets in celebration of Kosovo’s declaration of independence from Serbia in 2008. Photo by Thomas Guignard.
Over a decade after Kosovo’s formal declaration of independence from Serbia, its economic and political future remains bleak. Divisive ethnic tensions remain, and Kosovo is still one of Europe’s poorest regions. Last year, yet another set of peace talks between Serbia and Kosovo failed to yield a formal trade deal, leaving Kosovo in a limbo associated with high tariffs, lack of visa liberalization, and inability to engage in international trade. While over 100 countries currently recognize Kosovo as independent from Serbia, many key international powers refuse to do so. The five European Union countries that do not recognize Kosovo have various reasons for doing so. However, a trend seen in each of these countries—Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, and Spain—is that each one of them objects to Kosovo’s independence due to its own local political situation, and the fear of what might happen to separatist movements within its own countries if they were to recognize Kosovo. Despite the instability across various countries that may result from the international recognition of Kosovo’s independence, key countries’ refusal to recognize Kosovo continues to pose problems to the long term stability and economy in the Western Balkans and beyond.
Russia and Serbia have consistently blocked Kosovo from joining the UN and NATO; the political stances of the two countries, coupled with those of the five EU member states, prevent Kosovo from receiving substantial aid from influential international governing bodies. Kosovo is considered by Serbs to be the ethnic and mythical birthplace of the Serb people, a claim dating back to the infamous Battle of Kosovo in the 14th century. Serbia is unlikely to give up the land of Kosovo, and without Serbian—and by extension, Russian—recognition of its independence, Kosovo will be continually denied access to multilateral treaties and trade agreements, preventing it from flourishing economically and locking it in a cycle of high tariffs and trade barriers. Greater UN, NATO, and EU support can improve Kosovo’s economic situation. By giving Kosovo direct aid to support job growth and business development and allowing Kosovo access to international markets, these multilateral organizations would help increase stability in Kosovo and further the international community’s goal of advancing human rights and higher standards of living in post-conflict zones. Such a collective denial against Kosovo is significant as Kosovo is currently vulnerable to a number of pervasive issues such as harmful Russian influence, threats to territorial integrity, and lack of media freedom are just a few of Kosovo’s problems. International bodies can help combat each of these issues, but they are unable to do so as long as Kosovo continues to be barred from entry by non-recognizing countries. As such, until Russia, Serbia, and others unilaterally recognize Kosovo, the country will never fully stabilize the precarious political situation or transition to a stable one.
Countries with active separatist movements fear that recognizing Kosovo could have detrimental effects on movements within its own borders, and argue that a movement’s demand for greater global recognition and privileges could lead to more regional and global instability. As of 2017, there were over 50 active secessionist movements around the globe, most of which failed to garner even a glimmer of recognition from powerful governing bodies. One of the most salient examples of such a movement is that of Bosnia-Herzegovina, specifically pertaining to the entity of the Republika Srpska (RS) within the country. This region geographically makes up about half of the country and is 82% ethnically Serb—a percentage achieved through an ethnic cleansing campaign by Serb forces. Since the end of ethnic warfare, the RS has wanted to secede from Bosnia-Herzegovina and join Serbia. This is a recurring debate within Bosnia-Herzegovina, with repeating calls for secession almost every year. Milorad Dodik, the current president of the RS, has already claimed that the Republic’s status should be the same as that of Kosovo and called for an independence referendum. If Kosovo obtains international recognition, as well as NATO and UN membership, it would give the RS more grounds to execute its separatist agenda, which many experts believe has the potential to incite another violent war in the region.
The challenges of fully recognizing Kosovo should not continue to be a barrier to the region’s economic and political success. Without international recognition, Kosovo will never be able to achieve the economic and political prosperity that is necessary for post-war reconstruction in the Balkans. The example of the RS in Bosnia-Herzegovina displays the fears of countries which refuse to recognize Kosovo. Recognizing Kosovo could cause ethnic tensions in the Balkans to reignite, and it could further lead to a precedent in which global secessionist movements spiral in a way that risks long term stability. However, there are ways to grant Kosovo autonomy without damaging regional stability—such as by coordinating international conciliatory presences and improving support for minority rights in the country. For example, the United Nations helped to establish an international civil presence in Kosovo in 1999, which promotes stability and human rights in the country to this day. The EU has also given financial assistance to Kosovo which has aided in the establishment of democratic institutions and improved the social welfare system, generally improving the lives of many in the country.
When considering whether to recognize a country’s independence, governments often do not consider the economic and political impacts of not recognizing a country. Economic stagnation, high unemployment rates, and enormous trade costs are just some of the side effects of Kosovo’s lack of full international recognition. Until Kosovo is recognized, it will continue to suffer from economic hardship and be unable to improve its standard of living. Especially considering Kosovo’s violent past and the horrific tragedies that Albanians in Kosovo endured, it is especially important for international organizations to aid the country in rebuilding, thereby adding stability to the Balkans and cultivating long-term growth rather than stagnation and violence. By not recognizing Kosovo, the international community is denying the region many of the basic necessities—namely trade access and the protection of minority rights—that it needs to function, ultimately harming Kosovo’s population and preventing it from achieving positive growth and change.
While recognition of Kosovo might lead to backlash from Serbia and Russia, in turn destabilizing the Balkans and other separatist regions, the alternative is to allow Kosovo to continue to flounder economically and hinder regional growth. In a country and region that has been recovering from war for 20 years, the international community must unilaterally recognize Kosovo in order to enable a future of change and progress in the Balkans.
Haley Zehrung (CC’22) is studying Political Science and Slavic Studies.