Why the Coronavirus Crisis Warrants Geopolitical Optimism
Recognizing the global threat, the US Air Force performed transportation isolation training in February 2020, which was designed after the international Ebola crisis and is used for moving patients infected with dangerous pathogens like the novel coronavirus. USAF photo by Senior Airman Cody Miller.
On January 30, for the fifth time in its history, the World Health Organization declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, this time in response to the outbreak of the Wuhan novel coronavirus. Despite travel bans and restrictions in 60 countries, the virus continues to spread. At the time this article was published, authorities had confirmed over 76,000 cases of the disease, also known as COVID-19, with the death toll exceeding 2,200. Thirty-four Americans have been infected thus far. Meanwhile, global markets and China’s economic growth for this quarter have largely stalled.
The damage wrought by the coronavirus is clearly devastating—but the geopolitical implications of the crisis are less gloomy. In light of rising tensions between the United States and China, the coronavirus epidemic presents a unique opportunity to improve the world’s most important bilateral relationship.
It should come as no surprise that the U.S.-China relationship is increasingly strained. On the domestic front, a protectionist impulse under the Trump administration led to the ongoing trade war, which has cost $84 billion since it began in July of 2018. Meanwhile, China has adopted a more assertive stance on the international stage, having militarized islands in the South China Sea, ramped up investment in the Belt and Road Initiative, and expanded Huawei’s 5G networks in the face of repeated warnings from US national security officials.
The White House’s 2017 National Security Strategy and the Pentagon’s 2018 National Defense Strategy labeled China as a “strategic competitor” and a “revisionist power.” In response, Beijing released a defense white paper that described the United States as having “adopted unilateral policies” and “provoked and intensified competition among major countries.” Whether they are willing to admit it or not, the United States and China are two great powers striving for primacy in East Asia.
But discontent in U.S.-China relations extends far beyond the intergovernmental level. Members of the US business community have complained about unfair competition and intellectual property theft. Academics are concerned about China’s threats to academic freedom abroad. NGOs have faced major roadblocks since the 2013 crackdown. Taken together, such issues have caused major American constituencies originally supportive of U.S.-China engagement to rethink their position.
On the other hand, the trade war has created the perception in China that the United States, as the global hegemon, wishes to prevent rising China’s “national rejuvenation.” Mainland Chinese have also voiced strong opposition to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, which the People’s Republic of China considers to be a runaway Chinese province. Ultimately, this mutual disillusionment casts doubt on the ability of the two economic superpowers to maintain a peaceful, cooperative relationship in the long term.
On one level, the coronavirus is exposing the cracks in U.S.-China relations. The Trump administration, contrary to advice from the W.H.O., imposed sweeping travel restrictions and strict quarantines. China later condemned the move as “certainly not a gesture of good will.” In an interview last month, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross even said China’s coronavirus epidemic “will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America.”
U.S. observers have also criticized China for suppressing information about the virus and failing to accept help from U.S. health experts, which delayed the initial response to the outbreak. Senator Tom Cotton, Republican from Arkansas, accused the Chinese Communist Party of having a “long history of covering up and minimizing these crises,” and erroneously suggested that the virus originated from a Chinese “super-lab.”
Combined with politically-charged public health measures and inflammatory rhetoric, business interruptions might accelerate the process of U.S.-China “decoupling,” or the split of the international economy into mutually exclusive economic spheres of influence. Quarantine measures in China, which keep nearly 150 million people largely confined to their homes, are wreaking havoc on global supply chains. The American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai recently reported that 78% of U.S. companies operating in China do not have sufficient staff to run a full production line. This could incentivize American actors relying on China’s manufacturing base to relocate or shift their supply chains to other countries.
But instead of exacerbating current divisions, another interpretation holds that the coronavirus epidemic, if addressed properly, has the potential to help mend the recent damage to U.S.-China relations. Notwithstanding its serious human and economic toll, there is reason to believe the global health crisis might justify a measure of geopolitical optimism.
The Chinese government's response exhibits marked improvements from the way it handled previous disease outbreaks. In 2003, for example, Chinese officials waited several months after the initial outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) virus—after thousands of people had already been infected—before alerting the public about the disease.
By contrast, China invited a W.H.O. team to assist with the coronavirus response in February 2020, and health officials across the international community have commended China for greater commitment to information transparency. Dr. Mike Ryan, head of W.H.O. health emergencies programmes, praised the government for “taking extraordinary measures in the face of what is an extraordinary challenge.” Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar also commended China for sharing the genetic sequencing of the coronavirus, enabling American medical organizations to create a diagnostic test and advance a potential vaccine.
These events demonstrate China is willing to cooperate with the United States and international organizations such as the W.H.O. in critical situations. While the United States has already pledged over $100 million in aid to China and other countries affected by the coronavirus, it is essential for the US government both fulfill its promise and support longer term disaster relief efforts to help rebuild damaged communities.
Because both countries stand at a critical juncture in the coronavirus response, there are ample opportunities for the United States to adopt an even more supportive orientation toward China. And by appreciating the present need to work together, U.S. and Chinese leaders could lay the groundwork for future cooperation on pressing global issues where there is no need for confrontation, such as climate change and nuclear non-proliferation.
The silver lining of the epidemic is that its public health, economic, and logistical ramifications provide a vivid illustration of how problems originating in China can directly impact the United States and its citizens. For US policy makers, the coronavirus crisis shows that forsaking engagement with China for permanent confrontation will not only destabilize the world order, but also carry adverse effects for the U.S. economy and the lives of ordinary Americans.
Trey Sprouse is a sophomore in Columbia College studying Political Science and East Asian Languages and Cultures. You can reach him at lrs2202@columbia.edu with questions or comments.
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