Climate Migration: A Concrete Solution for Fossil-Fueled Smoke and Mirrored Promises
A red-footed booby flies over the Pola Islands, one of the many Pacific Islands threatened by climate change. Photo courtesy of the National Park Service.
While climate change has had widespread global impacts, its devastation is felt most acutely by developing countries—especially island nations. These nations are uniquely geographically susceptible to disaster and lack the necessary infrastructure to protect their land and people from climate change’s effects. Over the next 30 years, Pacific Island nations such as Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Fiji will experience at least 6 inches of sea level rise. Unfortunately, this means Pacific Island Nations are going underwater, and it’s too late to stop it. Therefore, the United Nations (UN) and other major powers should stop focusing their resources and attention on lackluster attempts at climate adaptation and redirect funding and administrative capacity toward facilitating emigration from these island countries.
The Pacific Islands are becoming increasingly uninhabitable. Vanuatu, a country in Oceania, has experienced some of climate change’s greatest natural disasters. In March 2023, Vanuatu experienced two Category 4 cyclones and a Category 5 storm in October of the same year. Micronesia has also experienced its share of extreme climate impacts, as the nation of islands suffers from frequent coastal flooding and erosion due to rising sea levels, which has led to coral death and fishery disruptions. On top of these disasters, the impact of climate change will only worsen as the climate and ocean continue to warm, the rate of sea level rise will triple, extreme weather will worsen, and the islands will be submerged, rendering them inhabitable. These unfortunate circumstances can be attributed to the failure of international governments to limit warming to under 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Funding climate adaptation is unproductive. At the Conference of Parties (COP) in 2009, major powers pledged to contribute $100 billion towards adaptation projects like planting drought-resistant crops and improving water storage and usage by 2020. However, countries contributed 15% less than they were due for climate adaptation, and the projects now require $340 billion a year. Despite its costly expenses, climate adaptation is more effective in reducing climate risks if the Earth’s surface temperature does not rise 1.5C° above its pre-industrial temperature. Yet, the earth has surpassed this threshold several times, and because island nations will submerge once the earth is consistently at 1.5C°, funding climate adaptation for the islands would be unproductive. The funding promised for adaptation should instead be used for a more life-saving plan–climate migration.
Climate migration is the most effective solution for saving climate-vulnerable nations, but improvements to the migration process must be made. To ensure the successful migration of islanders and other climate refugees, three infrastructure-related actions must first take place. First, climate migration must be recognized under international law. Second, the UN Refugee Agency’s 1951 Refugee Convention must be updated to include climate refugees under their definition of refugees, and third, an international climate refugee visa program must be started.
To begin, the term “climate refugee” is not recognized by international law, but needs to be in order to help start up an international climate refugee visa program. An international climate refugee visa program is needed because countries have differing immigration policies, and immigration under a uniform system would facilitate efficient migration. The 1951 Refugee Convention, also part of international law, was a convention held by the UN Refugee Agency that defined the term 'refugee' and outlined their rights. The convention’s definition needs to be updated to include climate change as a cause of emigration, as it would include climate refugees within the UN’s work to facilitate pathways for migration. This change will effectively allow the UN Refugee Agency to become the primary actor that leads international migration, giving them permission to create and manage an international system.
By ensuring a solid base of rights for climate refugees and enforcing a main infrastructure for international climate migration, efficient movement can take place. Countries that have strong immigration infrastructure and space to accommodate islanders can use the structures in place to begin a national Climate Refugee Visa Program, which would allow for climate refugees to migrate each year. The visa program was originally piloted by New Zealand in 2017, which permitted 100 islanders to migrate. Comparable programs also exist in countries like Argentina, which created a visa program for climate-displaced people from the Caribbean, Central America, and Mexico. Visa programs like Argentina’s show that it is possible to broaden immigration law, and its facilitation through the UN can make the process much easier as a central government would facilitate the movement of migrants to host nations. If the UN Refugee Agency can connect and expand the systems already in place to help migrants, more developed countries can help preserve the lives of many.
The updates needed and the lack of a universal migration system reveal that international powers are not doing enough to facilitate climate migration. As stated, many frameworks that allow islanders to successfully migrate exist but need expansion and integration into a larger system that facilitates the migration of all climate refugees to safer and less climate-vulnerable countries. Current efforts are being made by the UN and migration agencies towards climate adaptation and funding, like fostering more investment and pushing for Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). NDCs are plans made by countries that commit to reducing their greenhouse footprint and are expected to become more ambitious each 5 years. NAPs are plans that focus on adaptation and prepare for climate impacts like rising sea levels and extreme weather. Although NDCs and NAPs help address climate change, the two plans do not address the need for the migration of developing nations. A system that connects independent agencies to one central government like the UN would ensure the consideration of developing nations are prioritized, establish uniform regulations that make navigating migration easier and equally distribute responsibilities among developed countries.
The climate change crisis requires both urgent, sustained action to create and facilitate an international migration system. Developed nations have the resources, advanced infrastructure, and responsibility to do so. To ensure that the needs of the vulnerable are met in a multipolar international order, facilitating climate migration must not be dependent on one country but a vast network of nations who each have something to contribute to the common goal of reducing climate change. However, it is necessary to address that many promises made on climate change, especially on an international level, often go unfulfilled. Organizing hundreds of countries to be on one accord has proven difficult with funding climate mitigation and adaptation, which means organizing an international migration system can prove even more difficult. Despite the intricacies at hand, there must be hope for the future. There have been mistakes from world leaders in the past, but accountability and transparency can still be built with their constituents. With attention to detail and genuine international collaboration, a global effort can help establish a more climate-adaptive and sustainable world.
Jacques Sangwa (CC ‘28) is a staff writer at CPR studying political science and public health, with a focus on political theory and international relations. He can be reached at mjs2449@columbia.edu.