A Turning Point at the Turning Point
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz holds a joint-press conference in Brussels with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, December 10th 2021. Photo courtesy of the NATO.
On February 27, 2022, just three days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz delivered his now famous “Zeitenwende” speech, marking a fundamental shift in the global order not seen since World War II. Scholz proclaimed, “We are now facing a Zeitenwende (turning point) in the history of our continent.” For years, Germany had maintained strong financial and energy ties with Russia, shaping Germany’s approach towards opting for dialogue rather than confrontational stances towards Moscow. However, with the onset of the Russian invasion, this approach was no longer tenable, forcing Germany to reassess Russian relations. During the address, Scholz unveiled the largest revamping of German foreign policy since the Cold War, announcing harsh sanctions on the Kremlin, ending German dependence on Russian energy supplies, and increasing military support for Ukraine.
Three years later, the implementation of the Zeitenwende has received mixed reviews. On the one hand, Germany has significantly reduced energy reliance on Russia by building newly operational facilities, moving towards carbon neutrality by 2045. However, Scholz’s promised military overhaul has seemingly fizzled out. In the meantime, sluggish economic performance and internal budgetary disputes prompted the collapse of the Scholz government in December 2024, in turn triggering new elections which will be held in February 2025.
Following the reelection of US President Donald J. Trump, the German Zeitenwende finds itself at yet another turning point. Berlin’s shift away from Russian oil and gas is a welcome sign for NATO allies. Germany has lived up to the NATO fiscal fairness doctrine championed by President Trump. The nation has reinforced its commitment to the 2014 Defense Investment Pledge, where NATO leaders agreed to commit two percent of their national gross domestic product (GDP) to defense spending. Nevertheless, Berlin’s new reliance on foreign licensing to revamp its energy grid and lackluster defense budget pose a unique threat to future climate diplomacy efforts, especially as the climate crisis accelerates.
For all its pitfalls, however, the German Zeitenwende offers the most successful case study yet for navigating the geopolitical challenges of the Russo-Ukrainian War. Chancellor Scholz’s speech indeed marked a significant turning point, both regionally and militarily, toward the increasing authoritarian threats worldwide. In less than three years, Germany has abdicated its reliance on Russian energy, secured two percent GDP spending on NATO defense, and remains on course to reach their 2030 climate goals.
In a world where the binary diplomacy of globalism versus isolationism dominates, Germany has entered what can best be called a space of beneficial ambiguity. Germany has charted itself toward the best of both worlds by agreeing to many elements of the United States’ push for reciprocal defense spending and revitalizing its energy grid. While many European countries either remain almost entirely reliant on foreign energy or have failed to deliver on a robust NATO defense policy, Germany has worked towards solutions to both problems. As NATO and Ukraine find themselves in the strategic wilderness of a Trump presidency and an ever-changing military landscape, the West should reevaluate Zeitenwende’s efficacy not only as an internal progress check but also as a path forward in a new era of energy diplomacy.
When Scholz delivered the Zeitenwende, he outlined the five key tenets of Germany’s response to Russia’s invasion: Supporting Ukraine in its fight for freedom and democracy, reducing dependency on Russian energy while continuing to pursue climate goals, taking a tougher approach to Russia and addressing authoritarian threats, enhancing Germany’s role in strengthening the EU and NATO, and arming Germany by bolstering its defense budget.
By all measures, the third and fourth goals have undeniably been achieved. Not only has Scholz talked tough on Russia and levied heavy sanctions that have lowered its GDP by 2.1 percent in 2022, but he also significantly increased Germany’s share of investment in NATO, as the nation hit the vaunted two percent gross GDP spending target for the first time since the Cold War. In the face of growing diplomatic anxiety over President Trump’s comments about not protecting “delinquent” spending countries from Russia, Germany’s Zeitenwende proves European governments can indeed thread the needle between transactional diplomacy and military protectionism in the Trump era while maintaining a strong relationship with the United States.
Moreover, in 2022, Scholz announced a one-time emergency fund of €100 billion—appropriations that are codified, or established in law, until 2027—to revitalize the Bundeswehr, the German armed forces. The emergency fund has been used to arm the German military with orders for F-35 fighter jets, new digital communications equipment, and heavy transport helicopters from the United States. By all accounts, Germany has picked up much of the EU’s heavy burden when it comes to defending itself and Ukraine from Russian aggression.
The challenge of the Zeitenwende comes in the form of the first, second, and fifth goals. Although Germany has made good on its promise to reduce energy dependence on Russia, with crude oil and natural gas imports coming to an abrupt end in January 2023, several challenges remain. For example, German engineers have built five new liquified natural gas imports to compensate for the cutoff of Russian energy. While this technology makes natural gas easier to transport, Germany has used Qatari and Chinese licensing to lease these imports at roughly $210,000 a day, making them financially and diplomatically beholden to the will of Eastern powers. Nevertheless, by diversifying its energy portfolio, Germany can and is mitigating their risks of energy dependence. Scholz’s plans have largely succeeded as Germany can now produce as much as 70 percent of its energy needs with renewable technologies, painting the Zeitenwende as an exemplar of strong energy diplomacy in the face of Russian aggression.
The challenge for Germany will be to shift away from its equivalent 70% reliance on oil and gas as of 2023 (which its net zero carbon goals for 2045 have called for). Such issues continue to place energy, particularly fossil fuels, at the forefront of global diplomacy efforts, accelerating the climate crisis and shackling countries’ military capabilities.
Additionally, the impact on Germany’s defense spending remains lackluster. In July 2024, Scholz’s government called for an increase to defense of $7 billion to the existing $57 billion budget in 2025. Instead, the Bundestag approved a meager $1.2 billion increase, raising questions surrounding the Scholz government’s political capital and reluctance to shift away from a post-WW2 culture of military restraint. Ironically, even Scholz’s military aid package saw massive cuts, slashing appropriations to Ukraine from approximately $8 billion to $4 billion for 2025. The justification for this was the G7 countries’ recent agreement to allocate a portion of nearly $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. However, distributing these funds requires unanimous G7 approval, which remains uncertain following President Trump’s reelection. A health check of Zeitenwende’s defense promises reveals glaring implementational maladies, a challenge for Germany in the age of transactional diplomacy.
Ultimately, most of the challenges of the Zeitenwende will be contingent upon the continued push towards a clean energy future and the outcome of Germany's looming elections, following the Scholz government losing its no-confidence vote in the Bundestag. In the coming months, the inauguration of President Trump and accelerated negotiations with Russia and Ukraine will offer a new timetable on Zeitenwende’s shelf life and its enduring efficacy. Compounding the pressures of the moment will be the outcome of the new elections, which will produce a government that may or may not remain committed to Scholz’s prescriptions.
Regardless, Germany’s unique adoption of beneficial ambiguity remains the strongest, most successful approach yet towards countering Russian aggression in Ukraine and balancing the transactional demands of the United States. As the onset of the Trump era nears, one increasingly defined by foreign policy ambiguities in its own right, Germany’s ability to balance its defense, energy, and climate goals remains a guiding light on the long, winding road ahead for the strength and survival of the EU and Western democracy itself.
Aum Desai (CC ’28) is a staff writer at CPR studying political science and economics. He is passionate about US economic, immigration, and foreign policy as well as international relations and can be reached at ad3999@columbia.edu