Chaos Within the Middle East? Why a Powerful Iran Brings Stability to the Region

Iranian Armed Forces motorcyclists parading through Tehran in 2018. Photo courtesy of Mizan News Agency.

Iran has put the Middle East in “a convergence of crisis,” United States Army General Michael Kurilla told the Senate Armed Services Committee back in March. The country has a soaring poverty rate, an economy that has been crippled by economic sanctions, and an increase in civilian discontent with its government. Despite these woes, Iran continues to spend billions of dollars toward its military each year, including financing various militant groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah. While Iran’s strong military presence in the Middle East is regarded as a hindrance toward regional peace by U.S. government and military officials, their military presence promotes a balance of power in the region by counteracting the United States’ regional presence. In the past 20 years, the United States has fought extensive wars with two of Iran’s neighbors, Iraq and Afghanistan, and Iran is constantly under the threat of war or invasion.

In addition to protecting itself from invasion, Iran’s military and foreign policy strengthens alliances with Russia and China. In light of having a smaller budget and military than the U.S., Iran centers its strategy around proxy conflicts and irregular naval tactics, allowing it to fight the U.S. and Israel without directly placing troops on the ground. Iranian naval tactics rely on smaller, quicker vessels to encircle and overwhelm larger ships despite having lesser military capabilities. This method was evinced by a small group of Iranian motorboats following a U.S. Navy ship off the coast of the Strait of Hormuz on August 17, 2023, forcing the ship to evacuate. This was not an isolated incident as there has been an uptick in Iran’s seizure of vessels in the region recently, despite its smaller military.

Besides pushing back against the U.S., Iran’s military presence fends off rival Saudi Arabia. The rivalry between the two countries is generated partly from an ancient religious divide between the Sunni and Shia sects of Islam, which are dominant in Saudi Arabia and Iran respectively. This religious divide still plays a major role in each country’s foreign policies, evinced by both countries’ support for various groups in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. In addition to the Sunni versus Shia rivalry between the two countries, Saudi Arabia has maintained more friendly relations with Israel in recent years when compared to Iran, as it has refused to engage in direct combat. Saudi Arabia has also bolstered its military heavily, as in 2019 alone it spent as much on defense as Iran did over a four-year period. Saudi Arabia is a military ally of the U.S., making it more of a threat to Iran’s safety and stability. 

While Iran still experiences devastating economic sanctions, the growing threat of other regional powers in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the U.S. makes it imperative for Iran to focus on bolstering its defense as well as its domestic economics. This way Iran will not only protect itself better, but it can also push back against superpowers, preventing the Middle East from breaking into more chaos or a full-blown war. Political scientists such as Kenneth Waltz argue that Iran’s nuclear proliferation would even stabilize the Middle East since it would counterbalance the tipped scales that are currently tilted against Iran in the region, such as Israel having several nuclear bombs. With a more powerful military, Iran is better able to counter Saudi Arabia and Israel’s military forces. Iran serving as a deterrence to regional powers is demonstrated by the fact that, despite increasing hostility in the Middle East, most recent attacks against Iran have been relatively small, preventing an all-out regional war.

Iran’s political hostility toward the West is rooted in political turbulence, dating back to Great Britain and the U.S.’s 1953 led coup to overthrow nationalist prime minister Mohammad Mossadegh and restore power to the exiled Shah. Mistrust of the West, particularly the U.S., grew from that point up to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and the mistrust continues to this day. Speaking to the Associated Press, a 24-year-old Iranian painter named Rana said that the U.S. “‘maybe did [the coup] out of fear of the emerging power of the Soviet Union, but it was like wishing for an earthquake to get rid of a bad neighbor … the rancor has never melted.’”

Pundits cite Iran’s potential nuclear power as a major threat to the international community and a reason for why Iran should not be powerful. However, a recent report by the U.S. Congress notes that Iran has halted its nuclear weapons program and is not currently undertaking the nuclear weapons development activities necessary to produce nuclear weapons. Both the U.S. and Iran have made several attempts at lowering Iran’s uranium enrichment through agreements in the past, such as the now-defunct Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, otherwise known as the Iran nuclear deal. While many argue that a powerful or nuclear Iran would be devastating to Middle Eastern and world peace due to Iran’s past rhetoric on countries such as Israel, history indicates that Iran has remained relatively cautious with its military responses and aggression, staving off escalation while maintaining credibility, such as during Iran’s drone strike against Israel this past April. As long as the Middle East continues to have various different rival actors seeking to weaken Iran, it is necessary for the country to develop its military capabilities to serve as a balancing force against the United States and its powers present in the region.

Peter Woodville (CC ’26) is a junior editor for CPR studying political science. He is on the Varsity Heavyweight Rowing Team and can be found during his free time following professional sports, traveling around the world, or having a catch outside with his friends.