A Hidden Layer of Implications: Iran, Israel, and the Russian-Ukrainian War's Impact on U.S. Foreign Policy Objectives
Russian President Putin meets with Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei and President of Iran Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran, Iran. Photo by the Mehr News Agency.
It is without a doubt that when Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022 the conflict became one of the most urgent issues on President Biden’s foreign policy agenda. With existing tensions between Washington and Moscow exacerbated by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s decision to withdraw from the New START nuclear control pact only complicated relations between the two global powers. On March 1st, 2023, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov reported that Russia’s return to the joint treaty was dependent upon the U.S. withdrawing their support for Ukraine. In response, U.S. State Department Spokesperson Ned Price affirmed that Russia’s suspension of the nuclear treaty will “not stop the United States from continuing to support Ukraine.” However, the Russian-Ukrainian war has implications beyond the European continent—given strengthened alliances between Iran and Russia, aggression in Ukraine is likely to spill over to tensions between Iran and Israel, complicating American foreign policy.
Though Iran and Russia have allied together against Western powers since the late 1980s, the invasion of Ukraine has strengthened this relationship. Mostly, the strengthening has manifested itself in the form of Iran’s weapons aid and political support for Russia, which began in September 2022; Iran has made itself a reliable and crucial ally in this conflict. Russia, in exchange, is now providing an “unprecedented level” of military and technological aid to Iran, including helicopters and air defense systems. In the Spring of 2022, Russian troops began training Iranian pilots how to fly the Sukhoi Su-35, a Russian fighter jet that could arrive in Iran as early as this year. White House officials have warned that the relationship between Russia and Iran could mold into a full-fledged military alliance, adding that the two countries were interested in collaborating on weapons development. The potential of this alliance may even include a joint-production line for Iranian drones in Russia.
While this military partnership has obvious implications for the current war between Russia and Ukraine, less apparent is the implications it has on existing tensions between Iran and Israel, a key ally of the United States. The conflict between Iran and Israel erupted after the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979, when Iran developed a staunch anti-Israel stance as an imperialist power in the Middle East. Since then, both Israel and Iran have carried out strikes on land, air, and sea, targeting one another. This conflict has generally been described as a ‘shadow war’ with only ‘tit-for-tat’ strikes. However, its potential to erupt into a full-fledged war has heightened ever since Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons.
The attacks seemed to lull when Western powers began publicly negotiating with Iran in 2013, which manifested in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), colloquially known as the Iran Nuclear Deal. Yet after former U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the treaty in 2018, the stalemate came to a halt. The Trump administration instead pursued “maximum pressure” policies against Iran, which took the form of unilateral sanctions. However, these sanctions appeared to have adverse effects. In retaliation, Iran has since focused on stockpiling nuclear weapons, exceeding the treaty’s limits of the enrichment levels of uranium since 2019. In 2020, Iran abandoned the limit on uranium enrichment altogether after the U.S. killing of Iranian general Qasam Soleimani. Thus the new levels of support via military training and arms exchange between Iran and Russia pose concerns to the potential of a full-fledged conflict between Iran and Israel.
Given the upcoming expiration of U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231 in October 2023, which is part of the Iran Nuclear Deal, it is likely that this joint endeavor between Russia and Iran will accelerate. Currently, this resolution restricts Iran from exporting drones or short-range ballistic missiles with ranges over 300 kilometers and payloads greater than 500 kilograms. While, at the beginning of his campaign, Biden explicitly stated that the United States’ return to the deal is possible if Iran promises to comply with the former regulations, the two countries still have yet to reach an agreement. The involvement of Russia in the acceleration of Iran’s military capabilities against Israel presents the Biden administration with a new diplomatic problem that prompts the need for renegotiation.
Recent talks between Israel and the United States regarding the regional impact of Russia’s military partnership with Iran have demonstrated the need for joint diplomatic strategies to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. In January, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the implications of an Iran-Russia relationship, discussing the possibility of an Israeli-American strategy against the budding alliance. Amid Israel's drone strike on a military factory in Iran in late January, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides stated, in the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, that “Israel can and should do whatever they need to deal with [in regards to Iran] and we’ve got their back.” The tactical support from Russia has made the threat of a growing military conflict ever-more possible and thus concerning for the United States, which has seemed to be showing increased interest in supporting Israel against a nuclear Iran. Despite Biden’s promise of a return to nuclear talks and a negotiation with Iran, the deal remains stagnant, and the preparation for potential conflict remains. All the while, Iran continues to develop their stockpile of nuclear weapons and exportation of foreign arms to Russia.
Thus, President Biden’s foreign policy agenda surrounding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine cannot be limited to a unidimensional paradigm. An additional layer of the conflict rests on the ability to negotiate with Iran on non-proliferation and the delay of weapons-grade uranium enrichment so as to not continue to empower Russia, nor accelerate conflict with Israel. Given the compounding effects of Russia’s military partnership with Iran and growing anxiety about nuclear proliferation expressed by Israel, the Biden administration must establish its stance on involvement in preparation for a potential Iran-Israel conflict. The involvement of advanced military equipment exchange, uranium-rich nuclear weapons, and a long-standing war with Ukraine all complicate the United States’ negotiations with Iran and Israel.
Julianna Lozada is a Staff Writer at CPR and a third year at Columbia in the dual degree with Sciences Po. She is studying Human Rights with a specialization in MESAAS and a special concentration in Sustainable Development. You can probably find her creating Spotify playlists in Milstein or taking power naps on Butler lawn.