A Modern Bismarck: How Giorgia Meloni Is Defying Pundits A Month Into Her Premiership

Giorgia Meloni at the 2022 Conservative Political Action Conference. Photo by Vox España.

In the aftermath of Italy’s general election last September, outsiders were quick to cast Giorgia Meloni’s victory in ideological terms. The Economist went to print on September 25th with the headline, “ITALY CHOOSES A PARTY WITH NEO-FASCIST LEGACY.” The New York Times began its reporting of the election’s results with the title “GIORGIA MELONI WINS VOTING IN ITALY, IN BREAKTHROUGH FOR EUROPE’S HARD RIGHT.” Politico chose “ITALY ON TRACK TO ELECT MOST RIGHT-WING GOVERNMENT SINCE MUSSOLINI” as the heading for its own article.

These headlines illustrate how the public has responded to the election of Giorgia Meloni and her party, Brothers of Italy. They highlight a tendency to view Meloni strictly through a partisan, ideological lens. Indeed, the new prime minister and her supporting coalition have come to be seen over the past few weeks as unstoppable perpetrators of extreme conservatism. With this characterization has come widespread fear regarding the future of social liberties, Italy’s position within the international community, and other sociopolitical issues. While some of these fears have turned out to be valid, Meloni’s political behavior has largely defied expectation, suggesting ideology is not the sole factor driving the prime minister’s decision making. 

A Troubling History

Given Meloni’s past and present policy positions, one could hardly be blamed for fearing the repercussions of her election. Meloni has dedicated the last several years to positioning herself as the foremost, and arguably most extreme, figure within the larger context of Italian nationalism. No evidence is more indicative of such efforts than a speech given by her at a rally in 2017, in which, after complaining about woke cancel culture, she described herself as “a woman, a mother, a Christian, and an Italian” above all else. 

Such emphasis on religion and nationality, and its implicit marginalization of non-Christian or non-Italian minorities, has served as the basis for dangerous notions of ethnocentrism and  social conservatism. In a tweet from 2019, for example, Meloni declared her opposition to the idea of jus soli, otherwise known as birthright citizenship. In her view, “Italian citizenship shouldn’t be automatic: it must be earned and granted only to those who love and respect our culture and identity.” Meloni has historically also shown little leniency for immigration. At a rally hosted by the Spanish far-right party Vox earlier this year, she provided political commentators with an emphatic “no to mass migration.” In 2017, she defined immigration as a “planned and deliberate” form of “ethnic substitution” devised to strip Italians of their jobs. 

Meloni’s approach to gay rights and questions of gender has proven similarly problematic. She has publicly declared her opposition to same-sex adoption, frequently complaining about having to distinguish between “Parent 1 and Parent 2” and ridiculing the idea of a “Gender X.” Meloni cogently summarized her views in the aforementioned address to Vox: “Yes to the natural family, no to the LGBT lobby…yes to sexual identity, no to gender ideology.” 

If such remarks were not enough to invite trepidation over Meloni’s intentions for the future of Italy, the newly elected prime minister has a history of fascist inclinations. She began her political career as a youth activist for the Italian Social Movement, a party formed by fascists who served under Benito Mussolini. In 1996, Meloni was even recorded describing Mussolini as “a good politician,” as she complained Italy hadn’t “had any politicians like that in the past 50 years.” Precedent of this kind in part explains why people and news outlets have struggled to view Meloni as anything other than a neo-fascist threat to liberal democracy in the aftermath of her election. 

Positive Affirmation

At first glance, Meloni’s time in office up until now would seem to support this view, particularly with regard to immigration. Since assuming the position of prime minister in mid-October, Meloni has pushed to limit the ability of migrants to enter Italy. The Italian Minister of the Interior Matteo Piantedosi, one of Meloni’s appointees, announced on November 5th that an NGO ship carrying 179 migrants would not be allowed to disembark in Italian ports. Only those in critical health conditions would be granted access to Italy, and even then only for the duration of their recovery. Piantedosi has also revealed that two other NGO vessels currently anchored in Italian waters will likely receive similar treatment. This combative, exclusionary attitude reflects a sharp reversal of policy for a country that, prior to Meloni’s election, was welcoming hundreds of thousands of migrants every year. 

Perhaps unsurprisingly, immigrants living in Italy have expressed serious doubts over their future in the country. Meloni has also recently outlined her vision for a naval blockade of North Africa that would require asylum seekers to be vetted in local European Union (EU) centers before being allowed to set sail for Italy. As far as immigration goes, Meloni appears to be giving liberals and moderates alike reason for concern by making good on her campaign promises. 

Turning Left  

And yet in so many other respects, Meloni is turning out to be nothing like the rabid ideologue many see her as. Since the beginning of her term, the prime minister seems to have disavowed many of her ultra-conservative stances. “I have never felt sympathy or closeness toward anti-democratic regimes…including fascism,” she said last month in her opening address to Parliament. What a peculiar turn of character for someone who described Mussolini as a good politician. 

In the same address, Meloni highlighted her intention to preserve liberal policies such as access to abortion, and repeatedly emphasized how her administration would not seek to restrict individual liberties. The prime minister has also made no reference since assuming office to the “LGBTQ lobby” and same-sex adoption rights she has so ardently criticized in the past. When asked about the follow-up to her election, she praised the smooth transfer of power from Mario Draghi to herself, stating, “so should it be with great democracies.” If such language is anything to go by, Meloni might sooner be defined as a democratic liberal rather than as a neo-fascist. 

Meloni has proven similarly reassuring on issues of foreign policy. Many feared the rise to power of the Brothers of Italy would endanger Italian support for Ukraine due to the prominent role played within the party by Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini, two politicians who have displayed pro-Putin tendencies in the past. Meloni has made it abundantly clear, however, that such inclinations will find no room in her government. When Berlusconi was recorded describing Putin as a “man of peace” and stressing how Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration should be replaced with a more “decent, sensible” one, the Italian prime minister responded with unequivocal force. “Italy, with its head held high, is part of Europe and the Atlantic alliance,” she said, “and whoever doesn’t agree with this cornerstone cannot be part of the government, at the cost of having no government.” 

Meloni’s commitment to supporting the Ukrainian cause became even more evident on October 28th, when Zelensky and her met over the telephone. The Ukrainian leader reported after the call that Meloni had “reassured him of her full support for Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression.” A meeting in Kyiv between the two heads of state is scheduled for later this month. Meloni’s administration is also currently piecing together the details of a new arms deal for Ukraine. This package should be approved by Parliament come mid-November and is set to provide to the Ukrainian army state-of-the-art surface-to-air missile systems. If such actions and rhetoric weren't enough to elucidate Italy’s anti-Russian position, Meloni recently called President Biden to affirm, in the words of the White House, “Italy’s continued assistance to Ukraine.” Such recurring rhetoric is arguably shaping Meloni’s government into an emblem of Western liberalism. At the very least, it would appear to be repudiating neo-fascist contours ascribed to Giorgia Meloni and her party. 

Realignment or Realpolitik?

Meloni’s time in office is difficult to understand through a purely ideological lens. From  steering clear of discussing restrictions to social liberties to repeatedly guaranteeing Italy’s support for Ukraine, the prime minister has so far defied conservative expectations. There is no doubt, in fact, that many expected Meloni to roll back individual freedoms such as gay and abortion rights. Equally surprising to outsiders must have been her aversion to Russian aggression, especially when one considers how fascist ideology espouses war as a justified political instrument. Could it be, then, that Giorgia Meloni has made a sharp turn to the left? 

Hardly. It is difficult to see how a history of neo-fascist sympathies could be reversed within the space of a few weeks. Meloni is also bound to know that it was precisely her far-right leanings that allowed her to rally a disgruntled Italian populace. A sudden ideological turnaround would represent a dangerous abandonment of her power base: the people. Indeed, that is likely why traces of conservatism, mainly seen in the prime minister’s approach to immigration, have nonetheless appeared in Meloni’s governance. 

Rather, Meloni’s ideologically inconsistent actions and rhetoric are manifestations of political pragmatism. In taking a particularly liberal approach to the early days of her premiership, Meloni has sought to reassure the West that she is no cause for concern. Her support of Ukraine has quelled fears of a fracturing in the European coalition that has staunchly opposed Russia up until now, earning Italy goodwill within both NATO and the EU. Sidelining civil liberties as politically off-limits is bound to have been equally well-received, especially in nations like the United States where issues such as abortion are of particular concern. Put differently, Meloni has pursued a well-crafted policy of self-moderation ever since assuming office in an effort to retain rather than alienate crucial allies. 

Italy’s economic state makes political isolation a particularly dire prospect to be avoided at all costs. Indeed, a shroud of recession is hanging over Italy. The Italian government currently holds $2.7 trillion in debt, which amounts to over 150% of the country’s GDP. According to data collected by the Economist, Italy’s economy is expected to shrink by nearly 1% in 2023, prices are at a five-year-high, and consumer confidence is at its lowest since the European debt crisis of 2009. To shrug off economic downturn, the country will need the European Central Bank’s and consequently the EU’s total support. Meloni has undoubtedly understood that to cast her government as an ideological thorn in the side of the European community could endanger such support. 

She is also attempting to secure the integrity of important financial schemes. Italy is waiting for a $200 billion pandemic-recovery payment from the EU, and has profited from its inclusion in the Union’s new bond-buying scheme, with Italian bond yields growing by nearly 3% over the past two years. Neo-fascist attitudes, both abroad and at home, could put such economic rewards in peril. 

Perhaps, then, the figure of Giorgia Meloni is to be viewed from a different angle. Instead of concentrating on her ideological associations, it is more productive to see her as a modern proponent of realpolitik, a political strategy devised by German chancellor Otto von Bismarck in the late 19th century where policy is dictated by circumstance rather than ideology or partisanship. This conclusion breeds mixed implications for the future of Meloni’s time in office. On the one hand, it suggests fears of a neo-fascist revolution of Italian society may have been overstated. Meloni’s willingness to forego far-right beliefs in favor of pragmatic concerns suggests particular conditions and political necessities may keep the prime minister and her government in check. 

On the other hand, Meloni’s espousement of realpolitik as a political doctrine cloaks the prime minister’s figure in frightening unpredictability. Ironically, a prime minister strictly adherent to extreme conservatism would have been less dangerous than the one Italy has found itself with. In the absence of unwavering commitment to ideology, it will be impossible to predict how Meloni’s response differs from one situation to the next. Giorgia Meloni is turning out to be a far more complex politician than expected, one with a fluid, conditionable political calculus whose future form no one can foresee. 

Giulio Maria Bianco is a staff writer at CPR. He is a sophomore studying History and Political Science at Columbia College.