Russian Invasion Upends China’s Global Ambitions

Russian President Vladimir Putin talks with President of China Xi Jinping (via videoconference) on 15 December 2021. Source from the Presidential Executive Office of Russia.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has completely shaken the state of geopolitical affairs. While the first major war in Europe since WWII has certainly rattled the international and European order, it also has had significant implications for the rising power in the East: the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Even though the PRC and the Kremlin have long had a close relationship, this partnership now has the potential to derail China’s geopolitical ambitions to be a benevolent global power.  

 Relations between the Kremlin and the PRC date back to even before the PRC’s founding in 1949 when the United Socialist Soviet Republic (USSR) assisted Mao Zedong and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in winning the Chinese civil war. This was quickly followed by the mutual defense agreement known as the Sino-Soviet Treaty of 1950. However, this relationship soon soured due to conflicts arising over the Sino-Indian Border War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and general ideological differences between Marxist-Leninism and Maoism. Ultimately, the disagreements over which nation would be the leading communist superpower led to a Sino-Soviet split in the 1960s, creating a three-way standoff between the USSR, the PRC, and the US. This split led to the USSR and the PRC opposing each other in numerous conflicts, including the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. While their relationship began finally thawing in the late 1980s with the ascent of Mikhail Gorbachev as General Secretary, Russia and China refrained from pursuing closer relations until the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea. This rapport grew out of the Western sanctions levied on Russia after the annexation, which forced Russia to reconsider its relationship with the PRC. Russia’s increasing isolation from the West caused them to downplay their analysis of the PRC’s threat to Russia, as well as bond with the PRC over their shared grievances against the US. 

Until the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Sino-Soviet partnership seemed to be paying off. Russia received much-needed money and investment from Chinese companies, while China gained important support in international organizations such as the United Nations Security Council. Furthermore, the PRC could reap the benefits of Russian disinformation efforts that helped destabilize politics in Western democracies such as the U.S. at little personal cost. However, this calculus has completely changed with the invasion of Ukraine. 

While China remains ostensibly committed to its “friendship without limits” with Russia over a month into the invasion, the costs of this relationship have significantly increased. Instead of helping strengthen China’s position on the geopolitical stage, its relationship with Russia has jeopardized its plans to become the dominant global power, putting the country into a difficult situation that makes it look uninformed and indecisive. After all, like the rest of the world, the PRC seemed blindsided by the news of the scope of the Russian invasion despite their allegedly close relationship. Moreover, the strong reaction from the West also caught China by surprise. Suddenly, China has become stuck in the impossible position of having to choose between a Russia increasingly isolated from the rest of the world and its ambitions to lead a new world order. 

As one of the few countries sticking to a zero-covid policy that is already distancing it from the rest of the world, China can ill afford even more isolation from the global economy. This is especially important as the country looks for new ways to maintain its rapid economic growth. Therefore, the combination of China’s insistence on a lockdown-based COVID-19 policy and the potentially massive economic consequences of fully supporting Russia’s invasion would further inhibit its attempts to return to pre-COVID levels of growth. These economic concerns are especially important considering that the CCP’s legitimacy relies largely on its ability to deliver strong economic growth. 

An ideological component further complicates this conflict. Having struggled with its own “breakaway” territories, such as Taiwan, the PRC has long pushed for countries to maintain and defend their sovereignty. Yet, the country’s tepid response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine exposes the PRC’s hypocrisy and weakens its ideological arguments regarding its claimed territories. 

Because of the impossible position, Putin’s invasion has placed China in, there is no good option for Xi Jinping. By firmly choosing a side, he risks isolating either Putin or China from the rest of the world. But not choosing a side carries its own consequences as well. In adopting a wait-and-see approach, China risks taking a backseat to a major diplomatic and geopolitical crisis, diminishing its image and significance on the geopolitical stage. If China wants to continue presenting itself as a global leader that can replace the U.S., it will have to involve itself in the conflict somehow. Xi is quickly learning that actions speak louder than words, especially when those words ring hollow. 

Wendy Wang (CC ‘24) is a Staff Writer at CPR and a rising junior studying Political Science and studying Ethnicity and Race Studies. You can find her probably not on campus, searching for the best cinnamon bun in the city or watching reality tv.