Sweden and NATO: From Neutrality to Reality
NATO ships arrive in Stockholm, Sweden, in March 2022. Photo by Frankie Fouganthin.
Although Putin used Ukraine’s decision to join NATO as his initial justification for invasion, Russian threats and aggression have heightened security concerns and forced the militarily nonaligned Scandinavian countries to choose sides. As a result, Prime Minister of Sweden Magdalena Andersson has publicly declared her openness for joining NATO. Moreover, for the first time since World War II, Sweden sent arms to a country in active conflict by providing military equipment to Ukraine, including 5,000 anti-tank weapons. Former Russian president and Kremlin ally Dmitry Medvedev’s response to these actions stated “there can be no more talk of any nuclear-free status for the Baltic—the balance must be restored.” In other words, Russia has warned Sweden that if it joins NATO, Putin will reinforce the Baltic Sea region with nuclear weapons.
Nonetheless, Sweden has still been somewhat reluctant regarding its future with NATO. As much as Sweden’s ruling party, the Social Democrats, has opposed joining NATO, they are aware that in the upcoming September 2022 election the issue of national security and military spending will become the most important—and contentious—topic for voters.
As a Swedish citizen preparing to vote for the first time in a Swedish election, I have observed how issues once prioritized by myself and other Swedes—including healthcare, education, immigration, crime and the environment—have quickly become deprioritized. Security is now front and center, given that the straight-line distance from Sweden to Ukraine is less than a thousand miles, and images of tanks, bombings, and the flight of Ukrainian refugees dominate Swedish media. As a result, 57% of Swedes are in support of joining NATO. Not even in the years following 2014, when a Russian submarine was sighted roaming Stockholm’s archipelago, was support for Swedish NATO membership as strong as it is today.
Russia’s willingness to use military force to achieve its geopolitical goals and Sweden’s inability to adequately defend itself have only amplified over the years. Sweden’s defense spending has been on a steady decline, from 2.5% of Sweden’s GDP in the late 1980s to 1.3% in 2022. Following the end of the Cold War, Sweden dismantled its military and in 2010 ended compulsory military service. Though conscription was reintroduced in 2017, Sweden’s rearmament could still take years given its gradual breakdown over the past decades. Sweden’s population consists of 10 million people, with 34,000 individuals in the Swedish Armed Forces, as well as 20,100 reserve personnel. For comparison, Finland’s population is half the size of Sweden’s and consists of 12,000 active members in the Finish Defence Forces. However, the country holds over 900,000 in reserve personnel. Sweden’s numbers are small and illustrative of the country’s weakness.
I worry that while Sweden aspires to act as a champion for peace and a pioneer within the field of neutral diplomacy, its policies could threaten the safety of Swedish citizens. However, some have also highlighted Sweden’s continuing reluctance to join the alliance too quickly, due to the fact the country has historically maintained a neutral security policy and boasts about not having engaged in war for over 200 years.
In 2017, Sweden asserted that it would hold a “military nonalignment” stance, which has given the country the ability to avoid military confrontation and safeguard national interests over broader Western and Russian geopolitical agendas. To give up this position would not only reconstruct the security order in Scandinavia; it would also bring NATO even closer to a confrontation with Russia since Sweden’s borders to Russia are so close.
However, tensions escalated when Swedish media reported that four Russian jets flew over the region towards the island of Gotland and violated Swedish airspace on March 31, 2022. The incident took place while Finnish and Swedish forces were engaged in a joint exercise in the Baltic Sea, and there were indications that two of the planes were armed with nuclear weapons.
In response, Moderate Party Leader Ulf Kristersson has promised that if he becomes prime minister this fall, Sweden will apply for NATO membership so long as there is a parliamentary majority for it. However, the current Social Democratic-led government is attempting to avoid impulsive security policy changes. In response, Sweden’s current Minister of Foreign Affairs Ann Linde emphasized that she is most “worried” that “the issue of keeping Sweden’s citizens safe would in some way be reduced to an election campaign topic.” Although the Swedish government believes NATO membership should involve more than the need to respond to an immediate Russian threat, what greater threat is there at the moment than an unprovoked invasion by Russia? What other motivation is necessary? Moreover, a shift to building an alliance with NATO might not be as hasty as it seems, given that Sweden has never truly been separate from NATO and it is not fair for the country to claim the benefits of the alliance without the official responsibility of joining.
Sweden’s self-proclaimed “neutrality” and “nonalignment” have become the subject of debate in recent years, most notably with the country’s support of NATO-led operations in Afghanistan and close cooperation with the United States on military training since 2015. As a result, Sweden has a somewhat contradictory security stance. On the one hand, Sweden has demonstrated a willingness to meticulously (dis)engage in whatever international military operations it so chooses. On the other hand, it has no definite military guarantees it can count on from other countries in the West, given it is not covered by NATO’s crucial Article 5 mutual defense agreement. Furthermore, when Sweden does engage in military operations overseas, it does so without renouncing its neutrality.
Without question, the world security order has changed. Sweden’s sense of security as an avowed neutral country is at risk. Party leaders, citizens, and the collective consciousness face pressure to either reaffirm its conditional nonalignment or actively commit to protecting Sweden and its European brethren against Russian aggression. The reluctance of NATO to respond militarily to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is clear indication that the alliance would not come to the aid of Sweden in a similar situation, regardless of preexisting partnerships and joint military exercises.
Therefore, the arguments in favor of NATO membership are compelling. Sweden’s reliance on past post-war security arrangements are no longer convincing since Russia has shattered that understanding by choosing aggression over diplomacy. Remaining non-aligned would be tantamount to ignoring the changed security environment. It is indisputable that post-Ukraine, Sweden will have to rebuild its military apparatus and enhance conscription requirements, so it would make sense for the nation to embark on this process within the NATO framework. As such, Sweden would have greater influence over NATO policy and possess a more favorable position to coordinate defense with other member nations in Europe. Norway, Denmark, and Iceland have been founding NATO members since 1949. If Finland joins within months and Sweden abstains, it will be the only country in Scandinavia outside of the alliance. This would send the wrong message to its Nordic neighbors, indicating a lack of solidarity and resolve. Swedish NATO membership would make the entire Baltic region safer from Russian aggression and present a united front.
I have also hoped for a world where peace and diplomacy prevail over war and violence. Sweden's neutral stance and its reputation serve as a mediating force in international relations. Sadly, this reality has changed as war in Ukraine rages at Europe’s doorstep. Sweden will have a critical choice to make and its implications will last for generations. The country is still haunted by criticisms of having been morally weak against the Nazis during during World War II, compromising its neutrality by supplying the German war industry with steel and machined parts and providing transportation for armed German reinforcement troops. Joining NATO would be the moral, militarily prudent, and brave choice for Sweden in light of the altered geopolitical landscape. A majority of Swedes have expressed a readiness to join NATO and membership would provide its citizens with reassurance of our security. Finally, it would send a powerful signal about where we stand and what we value as a country.
Yasmine Dahlberg (CC ‘23) is a staff writer at CPR majoring in Sociology. Growing up with a Haitian-American mother and a Swedish father, her life’s mission is to find the best styling products for multi-textured curls.