Lockdown Losses: Why China Has to Change Its COVID-19 Policy

Photo courtesy of the Presidential Executive Office of Russia.

The Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics have been notable for a couple reasons, from a figure skating doping scandal to diplomatic boycotts. However, one of the Games’ biggest flash points has been its draconian COVID-19 policies. The tightly-controlled “closed loop” system has attracted a range of criticisms, concerning everything from its nearly inedible quarantine food to the athletes being kept in isolation long after they first tested positive. Although many athletes expressed shock at China’s measures, for most of its populace, these policies have been the norm since January 2020. While such stringent restrictions have been largely effective at tamping down major outbreaks up to and including the Olympics, China’s “zero-COVID” strategy will become increasingly unrealistic, especially with increasing global vaccination rates, slowing economic growth, and growing internal frustration. 

China’s coronavirus policies increasingly isolate it from the rest of the world, and are beginning to hurt, rather than help, its economy—which may threaten the regime’s grip on power. Since the beginning of the reform and opening-up period under Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese Communist Party has relied on the concept of performance legitimacy to remain in power. Namely, the CCP bases its rule on its economic performance and output, at the expense of civil rights and liberties. While this strategy has worked largely due to China’s explosive economic growth in the past two decades, it also means that if the economy slows down, the Chinese government is in trouble. Because the economy is tied to the CCP’s political survival, during the early stages of the pandemic, the CCP focused on eliminating any traces of virus through strict lockdowns that shut down entire cities. At the time, since vaccines had not been developed yet, this seemed like the best strategy. These drastic measures meant entire cities could rapidly be declared COVID-free, allowing people in those areas to quickly return to some sense of social and economic normalcy. It allowed China to seemingly tame the virus, while many Western countries struggled with various stages of lockdowns and constantly-strained healthcare systems. China’s initial success in dealing with COVID-19 seemed to validate not only the CCP’s rule, but the brutal efficiency of autocratic regimes in general. After all, China was the only major economy in 2020 to have positive economic growth. 

But two years later, as vaccines become increasingly widespread, these massive lockdowns are making less and less sense, especially as other countries that adopted similarly strict lockdown policies begin opening up. China’s adherence to a zero-COVID policy means that while other countries’ economies are beginning to recover, China’s is now uniquely stuck in 2020. Its unchanged policy towards COVID-19 will make it nearly impossible for the country to return to its full economic activity. Consequently, as other countries increasingly move away from drastic lockdowns, China’s economy will begin lagging relative to other countries, thus undermining the CCP’s legitimacy. Already, China’s consumer spending is shrinking, and many analysts are already lowering their expectations for China’s growth this year. Therefore, if the CCP wants to stay in power, it must shift to a COVID policy that does not harm its economy—specifically one not involving such drastic measures. 

China’s current stance not only hurts its economy, but also its image as a global leader. While changing its stance right before the Olympics, when all eyes are on it, would have been embarrassing, China’s current strategy will become more and more humiliating after the Olympics, as it highlights the CCP’s brutality and slows its economy. After all, to the Chinese government, hosting the Olympics helps establish China’s status as a dominant global power. The Olympics is the culmination of China’s geopolitical ambitions of serving as a counterweight to a Western-led global order. Consequently, China has also been using the pandemic as a chance to further improve its image abroad, such as through donating medical supplies, aid, and vaccines. Again, this made sense when China seemed to have contained the virus, while Western countries struggled to tame the virus’ spread. Its COVID-19 vaccine even probably contributed to Nicaragua switching diplomatic ties from Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China. However, as its COVID policies seem increasingly outdated, not only will this avenue of clout become less effective, but China’s image as a global leader will also be damaged, as China will be trailing, not leading, the rest of the world. 

China’s strict lockdown policy has started to attract internal criticism as well, with some of its harsher measures drawing condemnation from its own citizens. From killing the pets of those placed in quarantine to allegedly depriving people of food and non-COVID-related medical care during a recent lockdown of Xi’an, the CCP is forcing its citizens to confront the brutal lengths it is willing to go to accomplish its goals, even at the people’s expense. The rumblings of discontent created by the CCP’s strict lockdowns are particularly dangerous because they could lead the Chinese people to start questioning the regime’s authority. 

The CCP’s number one priority is the preservation of its legitimacy. When COVID-19 first emerged, that meant strict lockdowns. But two years later, it is going to have to mean changing China’s COVID-19 policies, or else the Chinese people might change their leaders.