Stepping Up: How the Fate of Taiwan Lies in America’s Handling of the Ukraine-Russia Conflict
Photo taken in June 2019, released by The Presidential Press and Information Office.
Shortly after the new year, more than 100,000 Russian troops surrounded Ukraine on three sides of its border. Triggered by the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, this territorial conflict has prompted the United States to take diplomatic and military measures to signal their backing of the democratic nation of Ukraine. But the U.S. is not the only global superpower with its eyes on this dispute.
Indeed, the U.S.’s response to the conflict in Ukraine will have profound implications for another territorial dispute some 5,000 miles away, between China and Taiwan. Just as the powerful communist regime of Xi Jingping in China is attempting to take over the small democratic nation of Taiwan, the authoritarian regime of Vladimir Putin in Russia is aggressively posturing to seize control of the small independent nation of Ukraine. Just recently, Russian military vehicles entered into the eastern Donbas region, spurring concerns of the start of a true invasion.
Taiwan is eager to maintain its independence and democratic values of sovereignty and self-determination, contrary to the communist values of China. According to the Pew Research Center report from 2020, 61% of Tawianese citizens have unfavorable views of mainland China, while 68% of citizens have favorable views of the United States. Meanwhile, Ukraine is seeking to consolidate their independence by attempting to join NATO, which aims to guarantee the freedom and security of its members through political and military means. This organization was originally founded as a defensive alliance, specifically as a means of deterring Soviet expansion and the revival of nationalism militarism in Europe. If Ukraine became a member of NATO, the alliance would be “obligated to defend it against Russia,” as Edward Wong and Lara Jakes of the New York Times explain. However, a long application process and specific prerequisites to join the alliance prevents Ukraine from immediately being a part of NATO. In fact, the current effort on the part of the Russian propaganda machine is to make it seem as though Ukraine could suddenly just “join” NATO, thus threatening Russia’s security.
In the midst of the Ukraine-Russia crisis, China’s ambassador to the U.S., Qin Gang, announced, “If the Taiwanese authorities, emboldened by the United States, keep going down the road for independence, it most likely will involve China and the United States, the two big countries, in a military conflict.” In other words, China would respond to a Taiwanese declaration of independence with aggressive military action which would inevitably involve the United States. China’s resolve to respond aggressively if Taiwan fails to adhere to their wishes mirrors Russia’s resolve to potentially invade Ukraine if Ukraine joins NATO. Both China and Russia represent powerful and steadfast forces that can only be countered by a similarly, if not stronger, response from the United States.
In response to the Taiwanese and Ukrainian movements, China and Russia have employed a similar propaganda strategy: argue their political and military practices in the name of “reunification,” a glib cover-up for an attempt to seize another country’s identity and rob it of self-determination. Russian President Vladimir Putin routinely refers to Russia and Ukraine as “one nation”—an absurd assertion—and often suggests that Ukraine's leadership is running an “anti-Russian project” due to their desire for independence. Furthermore, on February 21st, during Putin’s national address, he stated that “Ukraine never had a tradition of genuine statehood.” Given the real possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, as Putin has now assembled 70% of the military personnel and weapons needed for a full-scale invasion, a window of opportunity for China to invade may be opening. As such, China has responded to the crisis, taking the role of Russia’s ally.
On January 27th, Chinese Forgien Minister Wang Yi claimed that Russia’s security concerns of NATO expansion in Europe should be “taken seriously” and that China strongly opposed “external interference” in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Furthermore, China sided with President Putin’s disdain towards U.S. intervention and NATO’s support for Ukraine, and is attempting to aid Russia in blocking Ukraine from taking any action at the United Nations Security Council. President Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jingping on February 4 for the first time in nearly two years. While details of potential agreements remain undisclosed, China has promised economic and political support for President Putin, which could deter President Biden from attempting to support the fragile state of Ukraine.
According to Evan S. Medeiros, a professor at Georgetown University who served on the National Security Council during Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, “China will be on the eastern front of what looks like a long-term global competition.” In other words, China will always align itself with eastern powers in global disputes—namely Russia—through diplomatic support and economic aid. Further, Medeiros believes that if President Biden fails to stop war over Ukraine by not imposing harsh consequences on Russia, the Chinese and Russians will “overtly align with one another.” Without aggressive action by Washington, the U.S. will face two major military crises at once: keeping Russia off Ukraine’s soil and preventing China’s efforts at “reunification” with Taiwan.
It is highly likely that this increase in military activity stems from China's anxiety over the Ukraine-Russia conflict—and the U.S.’s actions thereon. The current situation in Russia and Ukraine serves as a model for China and Taiwan. The support given to Ukraine in response to Russian aggression represents the type of support the U.S. should also give to Taiwan should China make more aggressive moves.
The U.S. has issued threats to the Kremlin, sent military equipment to Ukraine, and signaled its willingness to deploy troops to eastern Europe if Russia does not pull back. China, meanwhile, has been increasing military activity at an alarming rate near Taiwan. Just recently, on January 23rd, China flew an astonishing 39 warplanes into the island’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ) in a show of force that included 24 J-16 fighter jets, 10 J-10 fighter jets, two Y-9 transport aircrafts, two Y-8 anti-submrainre warning articrafts, and one nuclear capable H-6 bomber. According to Taiwan’s Defence Ministry, this was the largest fleet of airplanes that China sent towards the island this year.
As China continues to escalate its military activity in response to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the time has come for the U.S. to assert its credibility—that is, prove its commitment to following through on its threats. This is Washington’s chance to stand firm in its support for Ukraine and to show Russia its unwavering defense for democracy. If the U.S. stands strong in its pro-democracy stance against Russia by bolstering Ukraine with military aid, China may be deterred by this act of support and back down on Taiwan. If the reverse happens—and the U.S. fails to keep Russian forces at bay—it will at best encourage China to test America’s limits through further aggressive military action toward Taiwan and at worst prompt it to invade Taiwan at full speed.
What is most at stake for Ukraine is how Washington plans to proceed. Continuing with issuing various consequences, such as harsh economic sanctions and sending military equipment to Ukraine is in the best interest for Ukraine’s security. One of the most punitive economic sanctions with which U.S. officials have threatened Russia could lead to severe inflation of the Ruble, a stock market crash, and financial panic at large. But considering that war is not in the best interest for any country, the U.S. should continue sending credible threats to Russia, such that if Russia makes any further moves towards Ukraine consequences will follow. Following through on threats is the key to defusing the Ukraine situation, and will also protect Taiwan by sending a signal to China.
As Joshua Shinfrinson and Stephen Wetheim of the Washington Post note, Russia’s actions towards Ukraine were “aggressive, unjustified and destabilizing,” as it is with China’s repeated actions towards Taiwan. Shifrinson and Wertheim, however, argue for a more conservative approach to resolving the conflict. They believe supporting Ukraine's independence through diplomatic and economic tactics—without aggressive military intervention or “pulling” Ukraine towards the West—will lead to more stability and defuse the crisis at hand. It is true that going about the Taiwan-China conflict in this manner is likely to lead to peace and to diminish chaos. But as a strong, democratic nation, is it enough for America to adopt such lenient strategies towards a country that has repeatedly intimidated Taiwan through unjustified military action and threats towards their independence? Should the innocent citizens of Taiwan, who want to keep their nation democratic and free, be subjected to constant fear of invasion by another country? The U.S. should seek to not only defuse the situation in Ukraine, but also retaliate if Russian forces refuse to back down. Doing so would set a critical example for China, serving as a warning that any attempt to wrest Taiwan’s freedom from its own citizenry will be met with dire consequences.
Evelyn Yu (CC’25) is a columnist writer at CPR with a focus on U.S.-China relations. She is a first year student looking to major in neuroscience and political science. Evelyn currently serves as an Event Chair for the Columbia University Asian Pacific American Heritage Month (APAHM) club, Social Media and Marketing Co-Chair for Columbia University Red Cross and dances with the Columbia University Ballet Ensemble (CUBE). You can find her taking up dance classes, exploring new coffee shops, writing, or just lounging on the steps with friends.