North Korean Hypersonic Missile Aggressions: Kim Jong-un’s Failed Scheme to Remodel the Playing Ground of the Korean Presidential Elections

North Korea Victory Day, 2013. Photo courtesy of Stefan Krasowski.

In early January, a festive period for international communities celebrating the arrival of a hopeful new year, North Korea disturbed the world with a flurry of missile tests, including one of a hypersonic missile, a clear indication of a developmental leap in North Korean technology. Later that month, the nation yet again conducted a series of missile tests, one of which being the largest missile launch since 2017. The Hwasong 12, an intermediate range ballistic missile, flew for 30 minutes to a distance of 800 kilometers (500 miles) before landing in the ocean. After its launch, the usual pattern of international disapproval followed: Condemnations were released, sanctions came into effect, and North Korea, seemingly unaffected, retreated back to its hermit cave. Whether the cooldown timer struck zero for North Korea to throw a cyclic tantrum or whether it is the dictatorial state attempting to reassert its position as a legitimate nuclear force, one fact is clear: the timing of these missile tests were particularly conspicuous, considering their proximity to the South Korean presidential elections. Despite Pyongyang’s attempts to disrupt its neighbor’s electoral proceedings, the missile tests only strengthened South Korean consensus on defense policy and empowered the voices of staunch North Korean opposition – ultimately leading to the election of Yoon Seok-yeol, the conservative party candidate who vows to take a militant stance against his Northern counterpart.

The 2022 presidential election marked the 20th exchange of power since the first republican constitution was adopted by South Korea on July 17th, 1948. Since then, South Korea has faced a number of political challenges — dictators, military coups and a presidential impeachment — that sought to undermine the country’s democratic foundation but have nonetheless proven that liberal democracy is more than alive. However, this year’s presidential election coincided with new challenges to the Republic: destructively low fertility rates, the divided “demos” (after an increase in gender and class division under Moon), and policy-positioning in a rising China. Amidst these unprecedented hurdles for South Korea, the “Rocket Man” in the North has continued to test missiles and weapons that pose a significant security threat to both South Korea and the world at large. And just four days before election day (March 9th), North Korea launched yet another intermediate range ballistic missile into the East Sea of Korea. North Korea’s intentions behind its attempts to influence South Korea’s presidential election using missile tests seem obvious at first, but upon further examination, the tests served a more nuanced goal – first, re-exerting the North’s presence in the international community, and second, hindering political drive and media attention away from other South Korean policy agendas. 

An uptick in aggression before South Korea’s presidential elections is consistent with the pattern of actions Kim Jong-un’s regime has displayed in previous years. North Korea has historically increased its frequency of provocations prior to Korea’s elections and after the new president has been sworn in. One month prior to the last presidential election in May 2017, North Korea tested intercontinental ballistic missiles on Founder’s day, celebrating Kim Il-sung (founder of North Korea and the instigator of the Korean War). Just 6 days after the 19th President of the Republic of Korea, Moon Jae-in, was elected, North Korea launched Scud ballistic missiles, which have a range of 1000 kms, into Japanese territorial waters. One of the greatest twists in this year’s election lay in an unprecedented move by the ex-chief prosecutor under President Moon, Yoon Seok-yeol, to join forces with the conservatives to challenge the incumbent Democratic Party. With Yoon, the People’s Power Party aims to bring sweeping changes to justice, equity, sense, and reason, while the Democratic Party puts emphasis on Moon’s stable pandemic management and equality. Yoon faced backlash against his hardline stance on diplomacy and conservative foreign relations policies, which under the view of Democrats, could potentially hinder reunification efforts with North Korea. However, North Korea’s continuous missile tests have to some extent justified the rigid stance taken by Yoon’s conservative foreign policies to the South Korean people. 

Another main reason the conservative party rose to prominence is its new voter base in their 20s, who have an increasingly pessimistic attitude regarding North and South Korean reunification. Nearly 80 years have passed since the division of the Korean peninsula, and the younger generation sees less cultural, social, and economic ties with the North than previous generations. As the voter composition changes, North Korean aggressions serve only to expose the younger generation’s nonchalance to Korean reunification. Young voters believe it’s time for South Korea to take a more rigid stance after years of failed reunification efforts. Even more so, the younger generations perceive the missile tests as a regular tantrum thrown by North Korea – something that must be reined in by the new president . Yoon’s statements on the necessity of preemptive strikes in case of hypersonic missile tests succeeding, faced tremendous backlash from the opposing democratic party candidate, Lee. However, this was later confirmed by defense specialists as the only possible option against hypersonic missiles — these episodes confirmed the belief of younger voters on dealing with the immature North, and weakened the basis of the democratic party arguments. 

Since the inception of his presidential campaign, Yoon had maintained a consistent 5~6% point lead in Realmeter (Korean polling agency)’s presidential election polls before North Korean aggressions. With scandals and family issues muddling the elections, the contenders of presidential elections were neck and neck; however, Yoon came out on top by 247,077 votes, the narrowest vote margin in the history of South Korean presidential elections. North Korea and its hypersonic missile tests certainly played a major role in reconfirming the importance of investing in national defense and protecting sovereign interests. Efforts by Kim to send a message – a political one, or a destabilizing one — seem to have backfired to favor a conservative party candidate who will make use of the big stick. In the future, North Korea must keep in mind that its means of aggression and attempts to muddle the elections of the South, may lead to repercussions that will, in turn, destabilize its own establishments. North Korea does not have many cards left in its hand to play — the election of a South Korean president who sees through Kim’s hasty poker face is poised to respond harshly to years of vexing North Korean nuclear aggressions.

Inwoo Kim is a student of the dual degree program between Columbia University and Sciences Po (‘25). He likes to contemplate about his future and the true meaning of life when he is not doing any work.