Doomed to Repeat It: Making the Mistakes of 2020 with the AAPI Vote

From 2016 to 2020, AAPI voter turnout increased more than any other demographic. Photo via GPA Photo Archive.

The Latinx vote in the 2020 U.S. presidential election appeared a foregone conclusion. 

With polling statistics reporting Latinxs’ progressivism and the Democratic Party’s reputation as the party of people of color, Democratic campaigns assumed that simply increasing Latinx turnout would bring them stunning victory. They were only partially correct. Latinx voters did deliver Bernie Sanders to victory in the Nevada primary—but also helped hand the state of Florida to former President Donald Trump. Now, despite the countless articles retrospectively dissecting the Latinx vote, pundits and politicians alike seem poised to make the same mistake—this time with Asian American and Pacific Islander voters. 

From the 2016 to the 2020 presidential elections, AAPI voters increased their turnout more than any other racial or ethnic group. Said increase of 10% topped even the 5% rise in Black voters’ turnout from 2004 to the 2008 U.S. presidential election, when former President Barack Obama’s name first appeared on the ballot. Asian Americans’ growth rate and increase in share of eligible voters also outpace all other major ethnic groups, with growth concentrated in battleground states like North Carolina and Georgia. Even more tantalizing for the two major American political parties, almost 40% of Asian American voters are not registered with any one party. The New Yorker’s Hua Hsu calls them “the mythical ‘undecided voters’” of today’s hyperpartisan era. 

Predicting the distribution of such a politically-potent group’s power is both traditional and tempting. Yet, a similarly-situated community defied political analysis just 10 months ago. While “those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it” may be an outdated adage, patterns still exist in the present. Given the growth and potential of the Asian American vote, none can afford to treat the votes of such a large, complex demographic as a monolithic outcome again—lest they bear last year’s consequences. 

At first glance, the numbers seem overwhelmingly favorable for Democrats. Asian Americans voted for President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump in a 2-to-1 ratio. The number of AAPI voters who identify as Democratic increased by 12% from 1998 to 2018; the number of AAPI Republicans dropped by nearly double that in the same time period. Former President Trump’s labeling of the COVID-19 pandemic as “the China virus” only accelerated those trends, making the outpouring of Democratic support following anti-Asian hate crimes seem perfectly sympathetic by comparison. 

There thus existed little incentive for Democrats to court AAPI voters. To them, if Donald Trump had loaded the bases, the left and their messaging had already hit the home run.  

They were wrong. Former President Donald Trump gained 7 percentage points with AAPI voters from 2016 to 2020. Republicans still maintain strong support amongst Vietnamese and some Chinese communities, who remain receptive to GOP anti-socialist messaging. Further, in 2020, two Republican representatives flipped U.S. House seats in racially-diverse California districts. They—Representatives Young Kim and Michelle Steel—are “two of the first three Korean American women elected to Congress.” 

Constrained by money and time, every political campaign prioritizes certain demographics. Unfortunately, the shortcuts parties take often base their rationale on stereotypes alongside statistics. Armed with the assumption that Asian Americans are seldom politically involved, and the perception that every person of color votes—or should vote—blue, Democrats hardly needed statistical evidence to justify their neglect of the AAPI electorate. 

Moreover, political pundits have informed the Democratic Party’s mindset for decades. Pundits are inherently reductionist, born of limited access to data, their own personal preconceptions, and the need to package information into an easily-digestible soundbite for the casual viewer. Punditry rarely allows for nuance. Frankly, we should have never expected it to. Our belief that pundits have the capacity to present the full, accurate picture has given weight even to the opinions that are anything but complete or correct. 

Campaigns certainly do their own research. But when the loudest voices echo the same assumptions, those assumptions linger. When the stress of running an airtight campaign with limited resources accumulates, it feels easiest to let those assumptions guide instead. Essentially, parties and pundits feed and draw from the same vat of so-called “common” political knowledge. Each reinforces the others’ mistakes. Each faces the consequences. 

To their credit, many have already begun highlighting the heterogeneity of AAPI voters’ perspectives. However, several of those very individuals and organizations still neglect to acknowledge the community’s resentment of being treated as a monolith in the first place. Spotlighting the diversity of voters of color remains essential, but after decades of failing to do so, the newfound recognition feels belated—or worse, cheap. 

That bitterness serves as the Democratic Party’s largest obstacle. As Democrats start aggressively courting AAPI voters, it appears as though they are attempting to regain laurels they never truly won—especially when, as of 2018, only 50% of AAPI voters report having had any sort of contact from Democrats. This wave of attention feels reminiscent of the surge that occurs right before a major election, when politicians tie up the final “loose ends.” It even reminds one of relatives flocking to a lottery winner, offering attention after good numbers were shown.

Easing such long-seated wariness rests on two foundational ingredients: respect and trust. To start demonstrating them, campaigns must reach out to AAPI voters outside of election cycles, not just earlier in the trail. Politicians must appoint not only AAPI liaisons, but AAPI staff of multiple political expertises, and grant them actual influence over major decisions. Finally, they must increase polling of AAPI voters on specific policy issues, and treat those opinions with equal—if not increased—weight as racial identity. 

Ultimately, the details matter less than the sincerity behind such behavior. The Democratic Party should prioritize demonstrating their commitment over checking boxes off of a to-do list. The deep rapport Democrats hold with other groups rests on decades of consistent and tangible action. Without such trust, political outreach feels tokenizing, conniving, and degrading. AAPI voters, like any other person, simply want and deserve respect. It is about time political actors gave it to them. 

Yvin Shin is an incoming first-year student at Columbia College. Her interests include international  relations; domestic economic policy; race, class, and gender relations; and grassroots politics. Yvin hails from Normal, Illinois, and plans to major in Political Science or Political Science-Statistics.