The Virginia Governor’s Race: Emblematic of Party Identity Crises
State Capitol of the Commonwealth of Virginia. Photo by Ron Cogswell.
American politics is evolving.
In the wake of the Trump administration and amid transformative social awakenings across the country, one fact has become clear: the two major American political parties are undergoing massive changes. While the G.O.P. debates whether to stick to its pro-Trump base or return to its previous conservative roots, the Democratic Party confronts the dilemma of whether it should align itself with its traditional moderate centrism—as represented by newly-elected President Biden—or whether it is time for more progressive leadership to take the reins.
In no state are these identity crises more clearly expressed than in Virginia, whose quadrennial gubernatorial election that takes place exactly one year after a presidential election and before the next congressional midterms, has long been a gauge of the Democratic and Republican parties. This year on November 2, Virginia is set to hold an election for governor along with other key statewide positions to replace incumbent Democratic Governor Ralph Northam. Virginia state law prohibits governors from serving consecutive terms, preventing Northam from running for reelection himself. As of now, at least 13 candidates have declared their candidacy for governor—including six Republicans and five Democrats—each with their own platforms and ambitions that reflect widening rifts within the two major parties.
This year’s election, in particular, will also present a unique gauge of where Virginia falls on the political spectrum. Once a stronghold for Republican presidential candidates, having gone Republican 13 out of 14 times between 1952 and 2004, Virginia has grown increasingly blue in recent years. Traditionally, the party that has won the White House has lost the governor’s seat, as has been the case for almost every gubernatorial election since the 1970s. However, considering Virginia’s shift toward the Democratic Party, both across federal and state elections, this year stands to be different. The 2021 gubernatorial election will be a crucial test of whether Virginia voters have become disillusioned enough with the Republican party, in part due to Trump’s unpopularity in the high-density suburbs, that they opt for a Democratic governor—finally matching the White House—or whether they will return to their Republican roots.
The Republicans
The Republican nominee will be determined through a convention process rather than a primary election. Among the candidates vying for the Republican nomination are State Senator Amanda Chase, State Delegate Kirk Cox, businessman and former candidate for Lieutenant Governor Pete Snyder, and former hedge fund executive Glenn Youngkin. While all of these candidates represent the same party, they are each taking different approaches in an effort to secure the nomination and eventually win over voters in the general election.
Chase, who has termed herself “Trump in heels,” is perhaps the most outspoken proponent of Trumpism and the right-wing extremism the former president championed throughout his term. She has not only followed his lead in insisting that the 2020 presidential election was stolen, but has also described those who stormed the Capitol on January 6 as “patriots,” resulting in the VA state Senate censuring her through a bipartisan vote. Furthermore, Chase has opposed same-sex marriage, openly carried a firearm onto the Senate floor while presenting bills during a committee meeting, and refused to wear a mask during Senate sessions amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Sen. Amanda Chase (R-Chesterfield) shakes hands with a gun advocate. Photo by Jeffrey Knight.
Other candidates, like state Delegate Cox, tout their experience delivering on Republican goals and ideals rather than attempt to cater to the pro-Trump wing. Cox, who previously served as Speaker of the VA House of Delegates, has espoused a more pragmatic approach to governance, which includes focusing on “kitchen-table issues” like education and taxes rather than ideologies. Like Chase, he has also voted against amendments calling for the repeal of the VA state constitution’s same-sex marriage ban and received an “A” rating from the N.R.A. However, unlike Chase and many other Republicans nationwide, he is the only G.O.P. candidate out of the current six running for governor to have acknowledged the legitimacy of Biden’s 2020 presidential win.
The contrast between Chase’s Trumpian approach and Cox’s more mainstream Republican platform is just one representation of the nationwide test the G.O.P. faces in figuring out how firm of a grip Trump holds over voters now that he has left the White House. While Trump largely turned off many swing voters residing in suburbs—which contributed to his general election losses in states such as Virginia—he has also managed to maintain a hold over much of the G.O.P.’s base that, in Virginia, will greatly influence the selection of the Republican nominee. These fractures within the G.O.P. have created a dilemma for VA gubernatorial candidates as well as Republican politicians across the country: how do they win over suburban voters turned off by Trump’s extremism while also accounting for Trump’s massive base who remains tightly loyal to him and his ideals?
As a result, the Republican party currently faces an identity crisis that is reflected in the diverse ideologies of G.O.P. candidates running for governor in Virginia and their conflicts of interest. As Cox once wrote about his fellow Republican rival: “[Chase] could participate in this nomination contest, but instead she will fade from relevance as loyal Republicans continue to focus on putting our conservative principles to work.”
The Democrats
Similar to the Republicans, a diverse array of Democratic candidates have also entered the running for their party’s nomination for governor, which is set to be determined in a state-run primary on June 8. Among the five Democrats are former VA Gov. Terry McAuliffe, former Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy, and State Senator Jennifer McClellan. Unlike the Republicans, however, the Democrats are not dealing with the aftermath of a political party whose character was completely transformed by the most recent former president. Instead, Democrats face the question of where their party is headed—either back toward moderate centrism, as represented in the 2020 presidential primary by Joe Biden, or further to the left following new, progressive leadership, as exemplified by Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
The current Democratic frontrunner, former Governor McAuliffe, has pledged to increase access to education, expand affordable healthcare, and support universal background checks on gun sales. Seeming to predict that he would be cast as the “status quo,” establishment candidate who would not embrace pushing Virginia too far in a progressive direction, he has attempted to center his new platform around policies to “move the Commonwealth forward,” including a plan to spend over $2 billion more per year on education to expand preschool accessibility and increase teacher pay. At the same time, however, many of the business-friendly, pro-corporate policies he espoused during his previous term as governor reflect his past record as a centrist. In this year’s race, it may prove to be a turn-off for more liberal Democratic voters.
Terry McAuliffe speaking at Frying Pan Park in Herndon, VA. Photo by Kate Wellington.
Furthermore, McAuliffe’s entrance into the race has generated controversy among those within the Democratic Party who believe it is time for a female candidate or candidate of color to lead and for more progressive leadership to dominate. Former Delegate Carroll Foy and State Senator McClellan are among those who believe that Democrats should elect a new face to bring real change to Virginians—and if one of them is elected, she would become the first-ever Black female governor in the United States. Foy, whose platform generally reflects a more liberal approach—including rejecting corporate interests and supporting the Virginia Green New Deal—has stated that “[McAuliffe] doesn’t understand the problems Virginians face. A former political party boss and multi-millionaire, Terry McAuliffe is simply out of touch with everyday Virginians.”
Meanwhile, McClellan, who possesses over 14 years of legislative experience, points to her previous work enacting important legislation such as a Voting Rights Act that could potentially become the first such law to be passed by a Southern state. Though different in many ways from Foy, McClellan has expressed a similar desire to bring in new Democratic leadership to Virginia to push the state forward, affirming: “today’s challenges require a new approach and a fresh vision to rebuild an economy that benefits all Virginians while addressing healthcare, education, climate and inequity crises.”
On the left, Former Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy. On the right, Sen. Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond). Photos by VCU Capital News Service.
Electing a female governor—and a woman of color at that—would make history in Virginia, which has never done either. For many across the U.S., which has still yet to elect its first Black female governor, doing so means the chance to appoint someone who could bring unique perspectives to tackling statewide issues while serving as a source of inspiration for many who still lack representation. “...We will continue to uplift Democratic women and women of color to positions of leadership and ensure that every child in our Commonwealth understands that women don’t have to wait their turn,” McClellan said in response to an endorsement from Fund Her. “Our turn is right now.”
As the national Democratic Party attempts to reconcile the various wings of its identity, state Democrats in Virginia have been left with a similar dilemma—whether to nominate a safer, middle-of-the-road candidate for the gubernatorial general election or to build upon the momentum for social reform generated by recent events and endorse someone from a more untraditional background.
What’s Next?
The current identity crises within the Democratic and Republican parties, as exemplified by the Virginia gubernatorial race, possess immense implications for the future of national politics and the country as a whole. Research has shown that over the years, political polarization between the left and right has skyrocketed, with increasing numbers of Democrats and Republicans expressing highly negative views of the opposing party. This polarization only swelled under the previous administration, as Trump’s final year was marked by a record-setting 85 point gap in approval ratings between Democrats and Republicans. The reluctance of both parties to cooperate is a challenge that has been passed on to the current Biden administration. On March 6, the Senate voted 50-49 to pass Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package. Every Democrat voted for the bill; every Republican voted against it.
The fracturing of the G.O.P. into those who still seek to cater to Trump and those who seek to return to a more moderate agenda stands to play a large role in the future of both parties and what the Biden administration can accomplish within the next few years. While Republicans debate over the focus of their party, Democrats have been presented with an opportunity to expand their base by appealing to the more moderate Republicans who were turned off by Trump. Fittingly, moderate Democrats such as President Biden have made efforts to work “across the aisle” and ensure that they gain bipartisan support while passing policy. Whether the Republicans, along with the liberal wing of the Democrats, agree to cooperate will play a large role in determining their success.
Ultimately, the question of whether both political parties can come together to work for the sake of the country remains to be seen, but one fact rings true: within each party, whether on the national level or in the state of Virginia, members seem to be growing further apart.
Aili Hou is a staff writer for CPR and first-year student in Columbia College with plans to study Political Science and French and Francophone Studies. When she is not busy with school, she enjoys baking, playing the piano, and obsessing over figure skating.