Republican Larry Hogan’s Success in Blue Maryland Offers a Potential Future for the GOP

Governor Larry Hogan presents his 2021 virtual State of the State. Photo by Steve Kwak.

There are few inconsistencies in politics as stark as the partisan gap between Maryland and its Governor. In 2018, an election cycle in which Democrats regained the House majority in a “blue wave,” Republican Governor Larry Hogan cruised to reelection. Facing his Democratic challenger Ben Jealous, the NAACP’s former president, Hogan won by nearly 12 percentage points, more than doubling his 5% margin from 2014. Stunningly, Hogan managed this feat in Maryland, one of the most Democratic states in the country. Hillary Clinton carried it by 26.4% in 2016; Joe Biden by 33.2% in 2020. Governor Larry Hogan has enjoyed remarkable electoral success against long odds.

On the other hand, President Trump’s GOP has become an increasingly ineffective electoral force, especially with suburban voters. Looking more closely at the Arizona results in 2020, Trump’s political unsustainability becomes clear. Trump lost the traditionally Republican Arizona because he was unable to carry sufficiently large margins in heavy Republican precincts and because Biden was able to flip 98 suburban precincts. It was this loss of suburban precincts that ultimately caused Trump to lose the state and, more broadly, the election. The siphoning of suburban voters away from the Republican party under Trump was also one of the main forces behind the Democrats’ dramatic 2018 retaking of the House, where Democrats flipped 40 seats. If it continues to be led by Trump, the GOP faces an uphill battle to regain the suburban voters they have depended on for years.

In his 2018 run, Hogan significantly overperformed in suburban, Democratic-leaning areas, maintained support with the traditional Republican coalition, and garnered a large percentage of the minority vote. He extended his vote shares in the Democratic strongholds of Montgomery County, Prince George’s County, and Baltimore. In Montgomery County, a largely suburban area outside of DC, which voted for Democratic Senator Ben Cardin by a 59% margin in 2018, Hogan earned 44% of the vote, cutting the gap between him and his challenger to just 11 points. In addition, Hogan remained strong in conservative, Trumpian areas of the state. Hogan won 93% of voters who said they had a “very favorable” opinion of the President and even outperformed President Trump’s 2016 and 2020 margins in Garrett County, the state’s most conservative region. Finally, Hogan was able to increase his vote share among minority voters. He won 28% of the African American vote, compared to Trump’s 8% in 2020, and 45% of Hispanic voters, compared to Trump’s 35%. 

How was Hogan able to pull off this wildly successful, three-pronged electoral strategy? He embraced bipartisanship and common-sense policy proposals from across the political spectrum, positioning himself as a moderate who gets things done. Hogan claimed that “the people of our great state voted...for bipartisanship and for common-sense leadership.” This line, though full of political platitudes, offers insight into Hogan’s appeal for voters. During his reelection effort, he embraced traditional Republican policies, pledging to bolster the tax cuts he proposed, which partially passed during his first term, and increase Maryland’s attractiveness for businesses. Crucially, Hogan did not hesitate to embrace traditionally Democratic stances when he felt them necessary. He advocated for paid sick leave, free community college for some students, a statewide fracking ban, and an expansion of access to contraception. Hogan chose to run on policies with broad bipartisan support. It is no wonder that Hogan currently enjoys a thoroughly bipartisan, 73% approval rating, the highest for any governor in the country.

Rhetorically, Hogan has not held back in his criticism of President Trump, allowing voters to evaluate him on his merits rather than through partisan filters. Hogan has criticized Trump on a litany of issues, from his child separation policy to his mishandling of the Covid-19 epidemic. After Trump instigated the January 6th insurrection, Hogan called for his resignation or removal, charging Trump with abandoning his oath to uphold and protect the Constitution. This long track record of what can only be described as anti-Trumpism is likely one of the main reasons Hogan won reelection. This division between Hogan and Trump resulted in increased support for Hogan in the traditionally Democratic areas of the state.

Imagine a Republican Presidential candidate, either Hogan himself or one in the Hogan model. They would be able to draw most—if not all—traditional Republican voters, along with numerous moderate Democrats. However, a Republican party under Hogan would, by definition, be anti-Trump. For a party that has defined itself over the last four years as the party of Trump, such an extreme reversal seems unlikely. Realistically, Trump will likely remain the dominant force in Republican politics at least until 2024, sidelining Hogan’s more moderate brand of politics.

While a Hogan takeover of the Republican party seems unlikely at the moment, there is no question that Larry Hogan’s unmitigated electoral success in Maryland, one of the bluest states in the country, shows that bipartisanship and moderation are winning policies. Hogan’s remarkable success among Democratic-leaning and minority voters, paired with his strong support among traditional conservatives, offers a winning path for the future of the GOP—if they are willing to take it.

Ian Springer is a staff writer at CPR and a Sophomore at Columbia College studying Classical Studies and Economics. He is from Chevy Chase, Maryland.