Kaliningrad's Role in the Balance of European Power

Kaliningrad Oblast, though widely forgotten, is a high-risk area for an escalation of tensions between Russia and the other European states. A strip of land in the middle of a sea of countries belonging to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Kaliningrad is an important strategic territory sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland. Why, amidst a group of pro-Western states, is this separated strip of land controlled by NATO’s primary antagonist, Russia?

Following the end of World War II, the European and American powers granted Kaliningrad, the area surrounding the German city of Königsberg, to the Soviet Union in recognition of the great Soviet contribution to the defeat of the Nazi Empire. Königsberg had historically been German, since its founding in 1255. The city even served as the capital of Prussia for centuries. After being given to the Soviet Union in the Potsdam Agreement, the Russian province has inspired disagreement across the European continent. 

Today, Kaliningrad offers Russia many massive strategic geopolitical advantages. It is Russia’s only year-round port in the Baltic Sea. The city thus serves as the home base of the Russian Navy’s Baltic Fleet. Kaliningrad can also be used by Russia to intimidate surrounding countries. During the Cold War, Russia’s power and capabilities were palpably represented by the massive conventional forces stationed in Kaliningrad. These forces could overrun Western Europe at any moment. Russia has deployed the Iskander mobile ballistic missiles to the region, which are capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Russia’s public announcement that the missile system is being deployed to the region is a stark reminder of Russian military capacity to Poland, the Baltic States, and Sweden, who all fall within the range of the missile’s capabilities. 

For former Soviet satellite republics like Lithuania, the existence of Kaliningrad in its current form presents an extremely frightening situation. As the Soviet Union left Vilnius in 1991, the last vehicle in the convoy of Russian army trucks had the sign “We will be back!” draped across the rear of the vehicle. Moreover, Kaliningrad causes the Baltic States to feel the Russian military might on two fronts, rather than one. In the Zapad War Games in 2009, 2013 and 2017, Russia and its close military ally Belarus simulated an attack on the Suwalki Gap, a 63 mile area between Belarus and Kaliningrad that serves as the only connection between the Baltic States and the rest of NATO. 

Before becoming a Russian oblast, Königsberg had a long history with the Germans. It played a large role in industry, trade, culture, and philosophy. German thinkers Immanuel Kant and Hannah Arendt, as well as poets Simon Dach and Agnes Miegal, called Köningsberg their home. When control of the province transitioned to the Soviet Union, only 5000 Soviet citizens were living there. 100,000 ethnic Germans were forcibly repatriated to Germany in order to “Russify” the city—400,000 Russian citizens were moved to Kaliningrad. 

As Russia attempts to grow its sphere of influence and makes claims of historical sovereignty over territories belonging to other countries, such as the Crimea in Ukraine as well as parts of the Baltic States, why are European nations permitting a Russian exclave in their backyard? 

Well, Germany has waived all claims to present-day Kaliningrad twice—through the Potsdam Agreement of 1945 and the Treaty on the Final Settlement with Respect to Germany, signed in 1990. Legally and constitutionally, Germany may not claim any territory east of the Oder, thus making a historical precedence of Kaliningrad belonging to Germany irrelevant. 

Lithuania was given the opportunity by the Soviet Union in 1994 to absorb the oblast, however the head of the Lithuanian Communist Party, Antanas Sniečkus, rejected that offer in fear that the ethnic and linguistic composition of the country would be too greatly altered.

Poland, on the other hand, does not currently contest the claim of Russian control over the area due to the fact that Poland had a net benefit from the Potsdam Agreement. To contest Russia’s territorial claim of Kaliningrad would, in turn, jeopardize their own territorial gains from the Potsdam Agreement. 

While nations aren’t directly willing to directly contest Russian claims to Kaliningrad, there still exists an undercurrent of opposition to Russian control over the strategic territory. In 2005, the German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder passionately professed that “in its heart [the city] will always be called Königsberg.” But Schroeder followed his statement by saying that Germany is unable to make a lawful claim over the territory. Members of the Lithuanian Parliament have also expressed their dissatisfaction over Russian control of the province. Parliament members have stopped short of saying Kaliningrad should become Lithuanian, but member Vytautas Landsbergis and some of his colleagues called for the ‘decolonization’ of Kaliningrad and stated that “Kaliningrad should become an independent republic.”

Russia has been actively fighting a sense of disassociation from many Kaliningrad citizens. Over 60% of Kaliningrad’s citizens hold a passport in addition to their Russian citizenship. The area’s cosmopolitanism has led to Kaliningrad’s label as a “melting pot.” People with roots across the European continent and across every oblast in Russia comprise the population of Kaliningrad. In an effort to curb the growing lack of identification with Russia, the government closed down the German-Russian cultural house in 2016, and has limited speech concerning Kaliningrad by its citizens. An Aeroflot stewardess made international news for losing her job because she referred to Kaliningrad by its historic name Königsberg before the plane on which she was working departed from Moscow. 

Kaliningrad is an incredibly important and geopolitically unique area often forgotten by the media and the world. It is possible that this neglect is simply due to a lack of possible answers to resolve this territorial question mark. In the wake of Russia’s repeated illegal incursions into the Baltic States and expansion into Ukraine, President Donald Trump should reaffirm the American commitment to Article 5 of NATO’s charter to ease the fear of Russian expansion by Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, ensuring the mutual defense of all its members. Since it seems unrealistic that Kaliningrad can become a part of a nation in the European Union, independence seems the most feasible way to end the risk of a violent escalation between Russia and NATO because of Russia’s unmistakable military buildup in Kaliningrad. 

Kaliningrad constitutes a decentralization of Russian power and an increasing political risk for the Kremlin as the population becomes more reliant on the West for trade. If the US and European nations are planning on upholding their promise to the Baltic States of protecting their territorial integrity, the territorial oddity that is Kaliningrad must be extracted from the Russian sphere of influence and made into an independent nation.