What the Fight for Kyrgyzstan Reveals about the Current World Order
Kyrgyzstan is a former Soviet country located in Central Asia to the south of Russia. It has a population of 6 million people. Although it is mainly known to the outside world for its beautiful natural landscape, Kyrgyzstan is also at the center of a battle for influence between the United States, Russia, and China. This battle has not only swayed these countries’ political decisions, but Kyrgyzstan’s decisions as well, serving as a reminder that the reach of world superpowers extends far beyond their borders.
A Brief History of Kyrgyzstan
To understand why the United States, Russia, and China are interested in Kyrgyzstan and why the influence of these three powers has had such a lasting impact, it is important to first understand the country’s history.
Kyrgyzstan was once part of the Soviet Union but gained independence on August 31, 1991 following the Soviet Union’s collapse. To date, Russia continues to exert control in Kyrgyzstan due to its geographic proximity and historical ties with the country. Nearly three decades after the fall of the Soviet Union, Russian remains one of the official languages of Kyrgyzstan (the other being Kyrgyz). Russia continues to be one of Kyrgyzstan’s top importers and exporters. Even though Russia has remained influential in Kyrgyzstan, two other players have joined the scene: the United States and China. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States opened diplomatic relations with the country to try to gain western influence in Central Asia. Around the same time, China also became more involved in Kyrgyzstan due to its proximity to the country, which lies on the western border of China.
While these three countries have competed for influence, Kyrgyzstan has experienced tremendous political turmoil since 1991. It has gone through two revolutions, one known as the Tulip Revolution in 2005, followed by another in 2010. These revolutions produced mixed results and political corruption remains a major problem.
For foreign nations, the Second Revolution marked a more significant shift in international relations involving Kyrgyzstan. The Second Revolution occurred on April 7th, 2010 at the President’s building in the center of the capital city, Bishkek. Protestors flooded the gates of the complex and at least 85 people were killed by police in the process. The president at the time, Kermanbek Bakiyev, fled to the south of the country. After he fled to Kazakhstan and then Belarus, he was replaced. These major shifts in power allowed for ethnic violence to increase along the Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan border. It is estimated that 400-1,000 people were killed in the process and nearly 400,000 people displaced. The uncertainty in the total number of deaths emphasizes the chaos that existed during this time period and the government’s desire to not draw attention to this part of the revolution. The Kygyz and Uzbeks have held grievances against one another for years, but this is one major instance where these disagreements resulted in major bloodshed, even as it was largely ignored by the international community.
Russia’s Direct Influence on the Closure of a U.S. Air Base
While it is clear that Kyrgyzstan has experienced a great deal of turmoil since its independence, the question of how Russia, the United States, and China have left lasting marks in this small but increasingly important country still remains.
Since Russia has continually sought to recreate the Soviet Union, its desire to maintain power in Kyrgyzstan is not surprising, but in the early 2000s, the United States joined Russia in seeking greater political and military involvement. For over a decade, the United States had an airbase in Kyrgyzstan. It was located at a civilian airport in Manas from 2001 to 2014. This airbase was essential for the United States during the war in Afghanistan and its presence helped the United States gain influence in Kyrgyzstan and Central Asia.
While this airbase served as a physical representation of American presence in the region, it did not come without controversy. In 2009, then-President Kermanbek Bakiyev attempted to remove the base. At the time Kyrgyzstan was in crippling debt to Russia and was looking for the United States to increase its payments in aide to the country. The Pentagon agreed to pay an additional $150 million for the base, satisfying the Kyrgyz government.
Manas was safely in the United States’ hands until the Second Revolution occurred in Kyrgyzstan in 2010. In one of his first speeches as the first elected President of Kyrgyzstan after the 2010 Revolution, Almazbek Atambayev announced the closure of the Transit Center at Manas, citing the base as a security threat to Kyrgyzstan. Atambayev was a candidate viewed as being aligned with Russia, and the closure solidified that image.
Before the protests became a revolution, then-President Bakiyev ended Kyrgyz people’s access to local computer servers when civil unrest started in the country. In a surprise move, the Russian Foreign Ministry complained about the President’s disregard for the people’s right to free speech, protest, and information. This newfound sense of altruism came from the fact that Bakiyev took $450 million from Russia in exchange for improved Kyrgyz-American relations. Bakiyev failed to follow through on that promise by allowing the airbase to remain and only changed its name in an attempt to satisfy the Russians.
Russia’s complaints eventually turned into economic action when Russia raised tariffs on petroleum imported by Kyrgyzstan and stopped a majority of banking transactions. Additionally, Russia pressured Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, two countries that border Kyrgyzstan, to tighten their borders so that Chinese goods normally smuggled across borders could no longer reach Kyrgyzstan. This placed even more strain on the country’s already-weak economy, leading to bigger protests and eventually fomenting a Revolution.
Russia’s advocacy for freedom in Kyrgyzstan put the United States in a difficult position. The United States viewed the Transit Center at Manas as “hugely important” and NATO viewed it as “vital” for the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan. Kyrgyzstan is a strategic location for any Middle Eastern conflicts, as it is close enough to the conflict to be a refueling station, but far enough away to guarantee that the site would not be attacked.
Nonetheless, the United States could not support the administration that preceded the revolution: it constantly asked the U.S. for money, silenced its people, and limited their access to freedom of information. Even though the closure of the Transit Center at Manas was the final U.S. base to close in Central Asia, the United States had no path forward to remain influential in the country.
With the U.S. Gone, a New Superpower Gains Access: China
At the same time that the United States was losing influence and its base in the region, China began gaining influence in the region. Prior to the fall of the Soviet Union, China could not gain much influence in Kyrgyzstan because the USSR controlled all transactions and relationships. After the USSR’s collapse, however, China began to increase its reach in Kyrgyzstan by trading goods, eventually becoming Kyrgyzstan’s biggest exporter.
Over time, China gained greater influence over more than just trade deals. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, much of Kyrgyzstan’s infrastructure--including water, electricity, and public transportation--had not been updated. In 2013, the time came for a power plant that ran the majority of Bishkek’s heat and electricity to be updated. Kyrgyzstan received bids from many different companies for the $386 million job, including some from Russia and China. On paper, it looked like the Russian company would win, since Russia not only had a strong influence in the region, but also was more experienced in handling these types of overhauls of electrical systems. Surprisingly, the bid went to a Chinese company instead.
In exchange for selecting this company, the Kyrgyz government would receive a loan from China. Today, the Chinese government has a total of $2.2 billion dollars invested in Kyrgyz infrastructure--close to one-third of the Kyrgyz economy. This increase in funding is a major part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which seeks to expand China’s influence and presence around Asia, Europe, and even Africa. The lack of immediate funds from the Chinese government has plagued the BRI. Forced to seek outside help, the Chinese government has found funds through Chinese companies, which consistently inflate costs.
Kyrgyzstan bore the brunt of these issues in 2018, when the newly updated plant broke down mid-winter, as temperatures often dipped below freezing. The plant was so poorly built that water in some of the boilers froze solid. Since this failure, politicians responsible for signing the contract with the Chinese company have been put on trial.
Despite these issues, China still remains an active policy player in Kyrgyzstan, alongside Russia, specifically through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which includes Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, China, India, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan. This Organization was created to better equip these countries to handle security threats and maintain hospitable relationships in the region. Kyrgyzstan even hosted the conference for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the summer of 2019, and both President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Xi Jinping attended.
Despite this battle between China and Russia for contracts in Kyrgyzstan, the two countries have remained civil, and in some cases helpful, to one another. For, even as these two countries are competing against one another, they are also competing against the United States, which both countries see as the bigger threat to their security. The strengthening of China and Russia’s agreement to not attempt to annihilate one another for power in Kyrgyzstan has forced the United States to only diplomacy that does not involve a physical military presence in the country.
Since the loss of the military base in June 2014, the United States has increased its presence in policy-making in Kyrgyzstan. In 2015, the C5+1 was created, which includes five Central Asian countries and the United States. The group seeks to create economic, security, and environmental partnerships. They have met multiple times since its creation and set up multiple projects including: Counter-terrorism, Central Asia Business Competitiveness, Transport Corridor Development, Power the Future, and Supporting National and Regional Adaptation Planning. Prior to the closure of the military base, the United States did not try to create partnerships such as the C5+1.
While it currently seems as though the clear winners for influence in Kyrgyzstan are Russia and China, this does not mean that the United States has no meaningful influence left. The United States helped to fund the American University of Central Asia, located in Bishkek. This university offers degrees from Bard College that are received in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. The U.S. Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan regularly speaks at the University. Additionally, the New York Times credited the “boisterous news media” as one of the reasons that the corruption issues regarding the Chinese Power Plant were being prosecuted and looked into. These aren’t policies or laws that insure that the United States has a direct influence in Kyrgyzstan, but they represent ideals that the United States has tried to promote in the region since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Beyond the fact that Western ideals have a greater presence than ever before in Kyrgyzstan, it is not out of the question that China and Russia try to undercut one another in the region. China and Russia have a better relationship today than ever before, but this relationship is not guaranteed to last; given the strategic importance of Central Asia to both countries, the battle for power is most likely to reignite.