I decided to shift through other major polling sources for state-by-state data that might help me make sense of the mess of polling numbers and demographic groups that is election season.
Because field offices work primarily to motivate voters to turn out at the polls, Wisconsin field support will make-or-break the Badger State for the Democrats.
Colorado makes for an interesting microcosm of the nation as a whole—its median voter rather than its extremist blocs—in that its voters tend to be amongst the most politically moderate in the United States.
The ideal Romney-Obama argument over Virginia must be rooted in promise, rather than retrospection—that is, Romney must convince Virginians that their economic stability is precarious and that four more years of the Obama administration will bring it to a halt.
The event was timely in light of recent conjecture surrounding the European Central Bank’s predicted interest rate cut, which is will lower interest rates to 0.50 percent (down from 0.75) in an attempt to boost growth throughout the faltering eurozone.
Romney could coast to a victory by default, the natural result of an election where the Democrats lack either the impetus or the funds to campaign on the scale of their Republican opponents. In a state where SuperPAC money flows like the Mississippi River, this is both a possible outcome and a probable one.
The Romney-Ryan ticket’s biggest challenge to winning Ohio will be convincing its citizens (who are already concerned about economic future) that their plan for reform will be more successful than Obama’s.
Obama’s success in the Sunshine State (and, for that matter, throughout the country) may hinge on his ability to convince voters, young and old, that his Affordable Care Act will genuinely benefit them by lowering insurance costs and expanding eligibility for treatment, without bankrupting the government.
Ultimately, whether these nearly-toss-up states become a bigger part of the campaign dialogue is dependent on the economy. An improved economy could be Obama’s biggest asset when courting the big states he needs.